{"id":244,"date":"2012-03-03T07:38:45","date_gmt":"2012-03-03T15:38:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/facingthesing.wpengine.com\/?p=244"},"modified":"2014-12-06T14:44:36","modified_gmt":"2014-12-06T22:44:36","slug":"ai-the-problem-with-solutions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/sk\/2012\/ai-the-problem-with-solutions\/","title":{"rendered":"Probl\u00e9m UI, a jeho rie\u0161enia"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright size-full wp-image-285\" title=\"rocking stone atop mountain\" src=\"http:\/\/facingthesing.wpengine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/rocking-stone-atop-mountain.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"210\" \/><span class=\"dropcap\">N<\/span>ach\u00e1dzame sa v k\u013e\u00fa\u010dovom okamihu hist\u00f3rie Zeme. Ako balvan usaden\u00fd na vrcholku hory, stoj\u00edme v nestabilnom bode. Nem\u00f4\u017eeme na tomto mieste zosta\u0165 st\u00e1\u0165: <a href=\"http:\/\/facingthesing.wpengine.com\/sk\/2011\/superstition-in-retreat\/\">UI pr\u00edde<\/a>, ak bude veda napredova\u0165. \u010coskoro sa zosypeme po niektorej zo str\u00e1n hory na nov\u00e9 stabiln\u00e9 miesto.<\/p>\n<p>Jedn\u00fdm smerom sa nach\u00e1dza vyhynutie \u013eudstva. (\u201eVyhyn\u00fa\u0165? Neh\u00fdb sa.\u201c) In\u00fdm stabiln\u00fdm miestom m\u00f4\u017ee by\u0165 <a href=\"http:\/\/books.google.com\/books?id=X5jdMyJKNL4C&#038;lpg=PP1&#038;dq=global%20catastrophic%20risks&#038;pg=PT822#v=onepage&#038;q&#038;f=false\">stabiln\u00e1 glob\u00e1lna totalita<\/a>, ktor\u00e1 zastav\u00ed vedeck\u00fd pokrok, aj ke\u010f to vyzer\u00e1 nepravdepodobne.<\/p>\n<p>A \u010do umel\u00e1 inteligencia? UI vedie k <a href=\"http:\/\/facingthesing.wpengine.com\/sk\/2012\/intelligence-explosion\/\">expl\u00f3zii inteligencie<\/a> a, preto\u017ee nevieme, ako da\u0165 UI <a href=\"http:\/\/facingthesing.wpengine.com\/sk\/2012\/value-is-complex-and-fragile\/\">dobr\u00e9 ciele<\/a>, expl\u00f3zia inteligencie bude za be\u017en\u00fdch okolnosti optimalizova\u0165 svet k <a href=\"http:\/\/facingthesing.wpengine.com\/sk\/2012\/value-is-complex-and-fragile\/\">n\u00e1hodn\u00fdm katastrof\u00e1lnym<\/a> cie\u013eom. Na druhej strane, <em>kontrolovan\u00e1<\/em> expl\u00f3zia inteligencie m\u00f4\u017ee optimalizova\u0165 svet k lep\u0161iemu. (Viac o tejto mo\u017enosti v nasleduj\u00facej kapitole.)<\/p>\n<p>Ja osobne sa celou <em>svojou<\/em> v\u00e1hou opieram v smere k tomuto posledn\u00e9mu \u00fadoliu: kontrolovanej expl\u00f3zii inteligencie.<\/p>\n<p>Na prchav\u00fd okamih hist\u00f3rie sme schopn\u00ed pochopi\u0165 (akoko\u013evek hmlisto) na\u0161u aktu\u00e1lnu situ\u00e1ciu, a ovplyvni\u0165, na ktor\u00fa stranu hory pravdepodobne dopadneme. \u010co teda urob\u00edme?<\/p>\n<h3>Diferenci\u00e1lny rozvoj intelektu<\/h3>\n<p>To, \u010do potrebujeme, je <a href=\"http:\/\/commonsenseatheism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/Muehlhauser-Salamon-Intelligence-Explosion-Evidence-and-Import.pdf\">diferenci\u00e1lny rozvoj intelektu<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Diferenci\u00e1lny rozvoj intelektu spo\u010d\u00edva v uprednostnen\u00ed rozvoja intelektu <em>redukuj\u00faceho<\/em> riziko pred rozvojom intelektu <em>zvy\u0161uj\u00faceho<\/em> riziko. Pl\u00e1n diferenci\u00e1lneho rozvoja intelektu konkr\u00e9tne pre oblas\u0165 riz\u00edk UI by odporu\u010dil, aby n\u00e1\u0161 pokrok vo filozofick\u00fdch, vedeck\u00fdch a\u00a0technologick\u00fdch probl\u00e9moch <em>bezpe\u010dnosti<\/em> UI predbehol n\u00e1\u0161 pokrok v probl\u00e9moch <em>schopnost\u00ed<\/em> UI, aby sme vyvinuli <em>bezpe\u010dn\u00fa<\/em> nad\u013eudsk\u00fa UI sk\u00f4r ne\u017e vyvinieme n\u00e1hodn\u00e9 nad\u013eudsk\u00e9 UI. Na\u0161a prv\u00e1 nad\u013eudsk\u00e1 UI mus\u00ed by\u0165 bezpe\u010dn\u00e1 nad\u013eudsk\u00e1 UI, lebo druh\u00fa \u0161ancu mo\u017eno nedostaneme.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright size-full wp-image-318\" title=\"Two-Horses\" src=\"http:\/\/facingthesing.wpengine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/Two-Horses.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"226\" height=\"170\" \/>Ve\u013emi zjednodu\u0161ene povedan\u00e9, v\u00fdskum bezpe\u010dnosti UI sa pretek\u00e1 s v\u00fdskumom schopnost\u00ed UI. Pr\u00e1ve teraz v\u00fdskum schopnost\u00ed vyhr\u00e1va, a v skuto\u010dnosti n\u00e1skok st\u00e1le zvy\u0161uje. \u013dudstvo viac tla\u010d\u00ed na v\u00fdskum schopnost\u00ed UI ne\u017e na v\u00fdskum bezpe\u010dnosti UI.<\/p>\n<p>Ak v\u00fdskum schopnost\u00ed UI vyhr\u00e1 tento pretek, \u013eudstvo prehralo. Ak v\u00fdskum bezpe\u010dnosti UI vyhr\u00e1 tento pretek, \u013eudstvo vyhralo.<\/p>\n<p>Mnoho \u013eud\u00ed vie, ako vyzer\u00e1 tla\u010di\u0165 na v\u00fdskum schopnost\u00ed UI. To je <em>v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ina<\/em> pr\u00e1c, ktor\u00e9 o UI \u010d\u00edtate. Ale ako vyzer\u00e1 tla\u010di\u0165 na v\u00fdskum bezpe\u010dnosti UI?<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/lukeprog.com\/SaveTheWorld.html\">Tento \u010dl\u00e1nok<\/a> obsahuje dlh\u00fd zoznam kateg\u00f3ri\u00ed probl\u00e9mov vo v\u00fdskume bezpe\u010dnosti UI, ale teraz d\u00e1m iba p\u00e1r pr\u00edkladov. (Presko\u010dte tento zoznam, ak sa chcete vyhn\u00fa\u0165 stra\u0161ne technick\u00e9mu \u017earg\u00f3nu.)<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Ke\u010f agent zva\u017euje radik\u00e1lnu zmenu svojho vlastn\u00e9ho rozhodovacieho mechanizmu, ako m\u00f4\u017ee zabezpe\u010di\u0165, \u017ee to zv\u00fd\u0161i jeho o\u010dak\u00e1van\u00fd \u00fa\u017eitok? S\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e9 te\u00f3rie rozhodovania si v tomto bode <a href=\"http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=MwriJqBZyoM\">nevedia poradi\u0165 v L\u00f6bovou vetou<\/a>, tak\u017ee potrebujeme nov\u00fa \u201ereflekt\u00edvne konzistentn\u00fa\u201c te\u00f3riu rozhodovania.<\/li>\n<li>Agentova funkcia \u00fa\u017eitku m\u00f4\u017ee odkazova\u0165 na stavy jeho ontol\u00f3gie alebo entity v nej. Ale ako <a href=\"http:\/\/arxiv.org\/pdf\/1105.3821v1.pdf\">poznamen\u00e1va<\/a> Peter de Blanc: \u201eAk agent m\u00f4\u017ee aktualizova\u0165 alebo nahradi\u0165 svoju ontol\u00f3giu, \u010del\u00ed kr\u00edze: agentova p\u00f4vodn\u00e1 [funkcia \u00fa\u017eitku] nemus\u00ed by\u0165 dobre definovan\u00e1 v jeho novej ontol\u00f3gii.\u201c Potrebujeme zisti\u0165, ako zabezpe\u010di\u0165, \u017ee ke\u010f d\u00e1me UI dobr\u00e9 ciele, tieto ciele sa \u201enepo\u0161kodia\u201c, ke\u010f UI aktualizuje svoju ontol\u00f3giu.<\/li>\n<li>Ako m\u00f4\u017eeme zostroji\u0165 potrebn\u00fa funkciu \u00fa\u017eitku z toho, \u010do \u013eudia \u201echc\u00fa\u201c? S\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e9 <a href=\"http:\/\/lesswrong.com\/r\/discussion\/lw\/a73\/a_brief_tutorial_on_preferences_in_ai\/\">met\u00f3dy z\u00edskavania preferenci\u00ed<\/a> v UI s\u00fa neprimeran\u00e9; potrebujeme nov\u0161ie, <a href=\"http:\/\/lesswrong.com\/lw\/9jh\/the_humans_hidden_utility_function_maybe\/\">silnej\u0161ie<\/a> a univerz\u00e1lnej\u0161ie algoritmy na z\u00edskavanie preferenci\u00ed. Alebo mo\u017eno mus\u00edme umo\u017eni\u0165 skuto\u010dn\u00fdm \u013eu\u010fom uva\u017eova\u0165 o svojich vlastn\u00fdch preferenci\u00e1ch ve\u013emi dlh\u00fd \u010das, dokia\u013e nedosiahnu ur\u010dit\u00fa <a href=\"http:\/\/singinst.org\/upload\/CEV.html\">\u201ereflex\u00edvnu rovnov\u00e1hu\u201c svojich preferenci\u00ed<\/a>. T\u00e1to cesta m\u00f4\u017ee zah\u0155\u0148a\u0165 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fhi.ox.ac.uk\/__data\/assets\/pdf_file\/0019\/3853\/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf\">emul\u00e1ciu cel\u00e9ho mozgu<\/a> \u2013 ale ako to urobi\u0165 tak, aby sme predt\u00fdm neumo\u017enili vytvorenie nebezpe\u010dnej, na mozgu zalo\u017eenej, sebazdokona\u013euj\u00facej sa UI?<\/li>\n<li>Mo\u017eno nevyrie\u0161ime probl\u00e9my te\u00f3rie hodn\u00f4t pred vytvoren\u00edm UI. Mo\u017eno namiesto toho potrebujeme te\u00f3riu, ako zvl\u00e1da\u0165 t\u00fato normat\u00edvnu neistotu, napr\u00edklad nie\u010do ako Bostromov navrhovan\u00fd <a href=\"http:\/\/www.overcomingbias.com\/2009\/01\/moral-uncertainty-towards-a-solution.html\">Model parlamentu<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Okrem t\u00fdchto \u201etechnick\u00fdch\u201c v\u00fdskumn\u00fdch probl\u00e9mov by sme mali zv\u00e1\u017ei\u0165 diferenci\u00e1lny rozvoj intelektu pri palete \u201estrategick\u00fdch\u201c v\u00fdskumn\u00fdch probl\u00e9mov. Ktor\u00e9 technol\u00f3gie by malo \u013eudstvo sponzorova\u0165 viac a ktor\u00e9 menej? \u010co m\u00f4\u017eeme urobi\u0165 na zn\u00ed\u017eenie rizika pretekov v zbrojen\u00ed UI? Zn\u00ed\u017ei riziko UI, ak podpor\u00edme celosvetov\u00e9<a href=\"http:\/\/lesswrong.com\/lw\/9hb\/position_design_and_write_rationality_curriculum\/\">v\u00fdcviky racionality<\/a> alebo <a href=\"http:\/\/lesswrong.com\/lw\/7nl\/moral_enhancement\/\">v\u00fdcviky dobra<\/a>? Ktor\u00e9 z\u00e1sahy by mali dosta\u0165 prednos\u0165?<\/p>\n<h3>Akcia, dnes<\/h3>\n<p>Jednou \u010das\u0165ou rie\u0161enia probl\u00e9mu rizika UI je teda diferenci\u00e1lny rozvoj intelektu. \u010eal\u0161ou \u010das\u0165ou rie\u0161enia je <em>kona\u0165<\/em>  na z\u00e1klade odporu\u010den\u00ed najlep\u0161ieho strategick\u00e9ho v\u00fdskumu, ak\u00fd vieme robi\u0165. Napr\u00edklad nasleduj\u00face \u010dinnosti pravdepodobne zni\u017euj\u00fa riziko UI:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Darova\u0165<\/strong> organiz\u00e1ci\u00e1m, ktor\u00e9 robia horeuveden\u00e9 druhy technick\u00e9ho a strategick\u00e9ho v\u00fdskumu bezpe\u010dnosti UI \u2013 organiz\u00e1ci\u00e1m ako <a href=\"http:\/\/singinst.org\/donate\/\">In\u0161tit\u00fat Singularity<\/a> a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fhi.ox.ac.uk\/donate\">In\u0161tit\u00fat bud\u00facnosti \u013eudstva<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Presved\u010di\u0165 \u013eud\u00ed, aby brali bezpe\u010dnos\u0165 UI v\u00e1\u017ene<\/strong>, najm\u00e4 v\u00fdskumn\u00edkov UI, filantropov, bystr\u00fdch mlad\u00fdch \u013eud\u00ed, a vplyvn\u00fdch \u013eud\u00ed.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Str\u00e1nka <a href=\"http:\/\/lesswrong.com\/r\/discussion\/lw\/cs6\/how_to_purchase_ai_risk_reduction\/\">Ako si k\u00fapi\u0165 zn\u00ed\u017eenie rizika UI<\/a> poskytuje viac podrobnost\u00ed o konkr\u00e9tnych projektoch, ktor\u00e9 mo\u017eno uskuto\u010dni\u0165 na zn\u00ed\u017eenie rizika UI, s odhadom n\u00e1kladov pre jednotliv\u00e9 projekty.<\/p>\n<h3>Pr\u00edle\u017eitosti<\/h3>\n<p>Zatia\u013e som hovoril iba o <em>rizik\u00e1ch<\/em> UI, ale je d\u00f4le\u017eit\u00e9 nestrati\u0165 zo zrete\u013ea <a href=\"http:\/\/commonsenseatheism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/Muehlhauser-Salamon-Intelligence-Explosion-Evidence-and-Import.pdf\">ani<\/a> <em>pr\u00edle\u017eitosti<\/em> UI:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Lie\u010dbu rakoviny alebo ekonomick\u00fa stabilitu si zvy\u010dajne nesp\u00e1jame s umelou inteligenciou, ale lie\u010dba rakoviny je v kone\u010dnom d\u00f4sledku ot\u00e1zkou dostato\u010dnej bystrosti na to, aby sme zistili, ako ju vylie\u010di\u0165; a dosiahnutie ekonomickej stabilit je v kone\u010dnom d\u00f4sledku ot\u00e1zkou dostato\u010dnej bystrosti na to, aby sme zistili, ako ju dosiahnu\u0165. Ak\u00e9ko\u013evek m\u00e1me ciele, m\u00e1me ciele, ktor\u00e9 mo\u017eno dosiahnu\u0165 do vy\u0161\u0161ej miery pou\u017eit\u00edm dostato\u010dne vyspelej inteligencie.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>V poslednej kapitole sa pok\u00fasim vysvetli\u0165, ak\u00e9 <em>dobr\u00e9<\/em> veci m\u00f4\u017eu by\u0165, ak sa <em>rozhodneme kona\u0165<\/em> a <em>urob\u00edme UI <strong>spr\u00e1vne<\/strong><\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c1no, mali by sme by\u0165 triezvi oh\u013eadom skuto\u010dnosti, \u017ee <a href=\"http:\/\/facingthesing.wpengine.com\/sk\/2012\/no-god-to-save-us\/\">ni\u010d vo fyzike nezakazuje ve\u013emi <em>zl\u00e9<\/em> v\u00fdsledky<\/a>. Ale mali by sme by\u0165 triezvi aj oh\u013eadom skuto\u010dnosti, \u017ee ni\u010d vo fyzike nezakazuje v\u00fdsledky s v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ou rados\u0165ou a harm\u00f3niou ne\u017e si na\u0161e primit\u00edvne opi\u010die mozgy dok\u00e1\u017eu predstavi\u0165.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ach\u00e1dzame sa v k\u013e\u00fa\u010dovom okamihu hist\u00f3rie Zeme. Ako balvan usaden\u00fd na vrcholku hory, stoj\u00edme v nestabilnom bode. Nem\u00f4\u017eeme na tomto mieste zosta\u0165 st\u00e1\u0165: UI pr\u00edde, ak bude veda napredova\u0165. \u010coskoro sa zosypeme po niektorej zo str\u00e1n hory na nov\u00e9 stabiln\u00e9&hellip;  <a href=\"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/sk\/2012\/ai-the-problem-with-solutions\/\">continue reading<\/a> &raquo;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-244","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-chapter"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/244","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=244"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/244\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=244"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=244"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=244"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}