{"id":288,"date":"2012-02-01T09:00:17","date_gmt":"2012-02-01T17:00:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/facingthesing.wpengine.com\/?p=288"},"modified":"2014-12-06T14:43:55","modified_gmt":"2014-12-06T22:43:55","slug":"intelligence-explosion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/sk\/2012\/intelligence-explosion\/","title":{"rendered":"Expl\u00f3zia inteligencie"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<p>Predstavte si, \u017ee ste nehmotn\u00fd duch, ktor\u00fd sleduje v\u00fdvoj vesm\u00edru. Za prv\u00fdch 9 mili\u00e1rd rokov sa nestane takmer ni\u010d.<\/p>\n<p>\u201eBo\u017ee, to je tak\u00e1 <em>nuda<\/em>!\u201c s\u0165a\u017eujete sa.<\/p>\n<p>\u201ePre\u010do?\u201c p\u00fdta sa v\u00e1\u0161 spolo\u010dn\u00edk.<\/p>\n<p>\u201eNi\u010d nem\u00e1 \u017eiadnu h\u013abku ani zlo\u017eitos\u0165, preto\u017ee ni\u010d k ni\u010domu <em><a href=\"http:\/\/lesswrong.com\/lw\/v9\/aiming_at_the_target\/\">nesmeruje<\/a><\/em>. Ni\u010d <a href=\"http:\/\/lesswrong.com\/lw\/va\/measuring_optimization_power\/\">neoptimalizuje<\/a> ni\u010d. Neexistuje \u017eiadna <em>z\u00e1pletka<\/em>. Akur\u00e1t sa stala hromada n\u00e1hodn\u00fdch vec\u00ed. Hor\u0161ie ne\u017e <em>telenovela<\/em>.\u201c<\/p>\n<p>\u201eNaozaj? A \u010do je tamto?\u201c<\/p>\n<p>Sledujete poh\u013ead v\u00e1\u0161ho spolo\u010dn\u00edka a v\u0161imnete si mal\u00fa molekulu v jazierku vody na skalnatej plan\u00e9te. Pred va\u0161imi o\u010dami vyrobila svoju <em>k\u00f3piu<\/em>. A potom \u010fal\u0161iu. A potom tie k\u00f3pia vyrobili svoje k\u00f3pie.<\/p>\n<p>\u201eReplik\u00e1tor!\u201c vyhl\u00e1site. \u201eO p\u00e1r mesiacov tu m\u00f4\u017eu by\u0165 <em>mili\u00f3ny<\/em> t\u00fdchto vec\u00ed.\u201c<\/p>\n<p>\u201eKtovie, \u010di z tohto bud\u00fa veverice.\u201c<\/p>\n<p>\u201e\u010co s\u00fa to veverice?\u201c<\/p>\n<p>V\u00e1\u0161 partner vysvet\u013euje funk\u010dn\u00fa zlo\u017eitos\u0165 vever\u00edc, s ktor\u00fdmi sa stretol vo Vesm\u00edre \u010d\u00edslo 217.<\/p>\n<p>\u201eTo je <a href=\"http:\/\/lesswrong.com\/lw\/j6\/why_is_the_future_so_absurd\/\">absurdn\u00e9<\/a>! Pri teraj\u0161ej miere optimaliz\u00e1cie by sme neuvideli \u017eiadne <em>veverice<\/em> vznikn\u00fa\u0165 \u010d\u00edrou n\u00e1hodou e\u0161te dos\u0165 dlho po tepelnej smrti vesm\u00edru.\u201c<\/p>\n<p>Ale \u010doskoro si v\u0161imnete <a href=\"http:\/\/lesswrong.com\/lw\/w0\/the_first_world_takeover\/\">nie\u010do e\u0161te d\u00f4le\u017eitej\u0161ie<\/a>: niektor\u00e9 z k\u00f3pi\u00ed s\u00fa <em>chybn\u00e9<\/em>. Tieto k\u00f3pie <em>sk\u00famaj\u00fa susedn\u00e9 oblasti pojmov\u00e9ho priestoru<\/em>. Niektor\u00e9 z t\u00fdchto oblast\u00ed obsahuj\u00fa lep\u0161ie replik\u00e1tory, a tieto lep\u0161ie replik\u00e1tory skon\u010dia s v\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00edm mno\u017estvom k\u00f3pi\u00ed ne\u017e p\u00f4vodn\u00e9 replik\u00e1tory, a sk\u00famaj\u00fa svoje vlastn\u00e9 okolia.<\/p>\n<p>Nasleduj\u00facich p\u00e1r mili\u00e1rd rokov s\u00fa jednozna\u010dne to najzauj\u00edmavej\u0161ie, \u010do ste videli. Jednoduch\u00e9 replik\u00e1tory ved\u00fa k jednoduch\u00fdm organizmom, tie ved\u00fa k zlo\u017eit\u00e9mu \u017eivotu, ten vedie k\u00a0mozgom, a tie ved\u00fa k l\u00ednii op\u00edc <em>Homo<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>Spo\u010diatku <em>Homo<\/em> vyzer\u00e1 ako hocijak\u00fd in\u00fd \u017eivo\u010d\u00edch s mozgom. So \u0161impanzom m\u00e1 spolo\u010dn\u00fdch 99% k\u00f3du DNA. D\u00e1 sa pochopi\u0165, ak si pomysl\u00edte, \u017ee \u013eudsk\u00fd mozog nebude \u017eiaden z\u00e1zrak \u2013 mo\u017eno umo\u017en\u00ed 50%-n\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161enie r\u00fdchlosti optimaliz\u00e1cie, alebo nie\u010do podobn\u00e9. Napokon, \u017eivo\u010d\u00ed\u0161ne mozgy tu boli u\u017e mili\u00f3ny rokov, a postupne sa vyv\u00edjali bez akejko\u013evek dramatickej zmeny funk\u010dnosti.<\/p>\n<p>Potom zrazu <a href=\"http:\/\/lesswrong.com\/lw\/w5\/cascades_cycles_insight\/\">jedna vec vedie k druhej<\/a>. Pred va\u0161imi o\u010dami \u013eudia zm\u00fadrej\u00fa nato\u013eko, \u017ee vedia \u0161\u013eachti\u0165 rastliny, \u010do ich vedie k usaden\u00e9mu sp\u00f4sobu \u017eivota a opakovan\u00e9mu obchodu, \u010do vedie k\u00a0<em>p\u00edsaniu<\/em> a zaznamen\u00e1vaniu dlhov. Farm\u00e1rstvo vytv\u00e1ra nadbytok jedla, ten umo\u017e\u0148uje <em>odborn\u00fa \u0161pecializ\u00e1ciu<\/em>, t\u00e1 d\u00e1va \u013eu\u010fom schopnos\u0165 s\u00fastredi\u0165 sa na rie\u0161enie probl\u00e9mov <em>in\u00fdch<\/em> ne\u017e h\u013eadanie jedla a s\u00falo\u017eenie. Odborn\u00e1 \u0161pecializ\u00e1cia vedie k vede a technol\u00f3gii, priemyselnej revol\u00facii, ktor\u00e1 vedie k cestovaniu do vesm\u00edru a iPhonom.<\/p>\n<p>Rozdiel medzi \u0161impanzmi a \u013eu\u010fmi vykres\u013euje, ak\u00fa moc d\u00e1va mo\u017enos\u0165 prep\u00edsa\u0165 agentove pozn\u00e1vacie algoritmy. Samozrejme, p\u00f4vodom algoritmu bola v tomto pr\u00edpade iba <a href=\"http:\/\/lesswrong.com\/lw\/kt\/evolutions_are_stupid_but_work_anyway\/\">evol\u00facia, slep\u00e1 a\u00a0hl\u00fapa<\/a>. <em>Inteligentn\u00fd<\/em> proces s trochou <em>predv\u00eddavosti<\/em> m\u00f4\u017ee preskakova\u0165 priestorom mo\u017enost\u00ed omnoho efekt\u00edvnej\u0161ie. \u010clovek, po\u010d\u00edta\u010dov\u00fd program\u00e1tor, m\u00f4\u017ee za jeden de\u0148 urobi\u0165 inov\u00e1cie, ktor\u00e9 by evol\u00facia neobjavila za miliardy rokov.<\/p>\n<p>Z v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ej \u010dasti v\u0161ak \u013eudia st\u00e1le nedo\u0161li na to, ako funguj\u00fa ich <em>vlastn\u00e9<\/em> pozn\u00e1vacie algoritmy, ani ako ich prep\u00edsa\u0165. A po\u010d\u00edta\u010de, ktor\u00e9 programujeme, tie\u017e (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Handbook-Metaheuristics-International-Operations-Management\/dp\/1441916636\/\">v\u00e4\u010d\u0161inou<\/a>) nerozumej\u00fa <em>svojim<\/em> vlastn\u00fdm pozn\u00e1vac\u00edm algoritmom. Jedn\u00e9ho d\u0148a v\u0161ak <a href=\"http:\/\/facingthesing.wpengine.com\/2011\/superstition-in-retreat\/\">bud\u00fa<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee <a href=\"http:\/\/lesswrong.com\/lw\/we\/recursive_selfimprovement\/\">bud\u00facnos\u0165 obsahuje slu\u010dku sp\u00e4tnej v\u00e4zby, ktor\u00fa minulos\u0165 nemala<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Ak ste <a href=\"http:\/\/lesswrong.com\/lw\/w6\/recursion_magic\/\">EURISKO<\/a>, dok\u00e1\u017eete meni\u0165 niektor\u00e9 svoje metaheuristiky, a tie metaheuristiky funguj\u00fa vidite\u013ene lep\u0161ie, a dokonca dok\u00e1\u017eu spravi\u0165 p\u00e1r \u010fal\u0161\u00edch sebamodifik\u00e1ci\u00ed, ale potom cel\u00e9mu syst\u00e9mu d\u00f4jde dych a padne na zob\u00e1k.<\/p>\n<p>Tieto artefakty spo\u010diatku vytvorila \u013eudsk\u00e1 inteligencia. Ich vlastn\u00e1 optimaliza\u010dn\u00e1 sila je omnoho slab\u0161ia ne\u017e \u013eudsk\u00e1 \u2013 tak neuverite\u013ene slab\u00e1, \u017ee ke\u010f sa posun\u00fa o k\u00fasok \u010falej, viac u\u017e sa posun\u00fa\u0165 nevl\u00e1dzu. \u010co je hor\u0161ie, ich optimaliz\u00e1cia na ka\u017edej \u00farovni je dan\u00e1 obmedzen\u00fdm mno\u017estvom pr\u00edle\u017eitost\u00ed, ktor\u00e9 sa pou\u017eit\u00edm min\u00fa \u2013 mimoriadne r\u00fdchlo sa zmen\u0161uj\u00face v\u00fdnosy.<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;Ke\u010f prv\u00fdkr\u00e1t zostroj\u00ed\u0161 UI, je to bato\u013ea \u2013 keby sa malo zdokona\u013eova\u0165 samo, takmer okam\u017eite by padlo na zob\u00e1k. Tak\u017ee ho pos\u00fava\u0161 \u010falej pomocou svojho vlastn\u00e9ho poznania&#8230; a vedomost\u00ed \u2013 a priebe\u017ene nem\u00e1\u0161 \u017eiaden \u00fa\u017eitok z rekurzie, iba zvy\u010dajn\u00fd \u013eudsk\u00fd postup vedomost\u00ed aplikovan\u00fdch na vedomosti a objavov aplikovan\u00fdch na objavy. \u010casom UI za\u010dne by\u0165 dos\u0165 sofistikovan\u00e1 na to, aby za\u010dala zdokona\u013eova\u0165 sama \u2013 nielen mal\u00e9 vylep\u0161enia, ale vylep\u0161enia dos\u0165 ve\u013ek\u00e9 na to, aby sa prevalili do \u010fal\u0161\u00edch vylep\u0161en\u00ed&#8230; A\u00a0potom dostane\u0161 to, \u010do I. J. Good naz\u00fdva \u201e<a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Technological_singularity#Intelligence_explosion\">expl\u00f3zia inteligencie<\/a>\u201c.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>&#8230;a UI zanech\u00e1 \u013eudsk\u00e9 schopnosti <a href=\"http:\/\/facingthesing.wpengine.com\/sk\/2011\/plenty-of-room-above-us\/\">\u010faleko za sebou<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>V tom bode budeme ako hl\u00fape \u0161impanzy pozoruj\u00face ako t\u00edto modern\u00ed \u201e\u013eudia\u201c objavuj\u00fa ohe\u0148 a farm\u00e1rstvo a p\u00edsanie a vedu a pu\u0161ky a lietadl\u00e1 a ovl\u00e1daj\u00fa cel\u00fd svet. A podobne ako \u0161impanzy v\u00a0tom bode nebudeme v poz\u00edcii, z ktorej by sme mohli s na\u0161imi nadraden\u00fdmi vyjedn\u00e1va\u0165. Na\u0161a bud\u00facnos\u0165 bude z\u00e1visie\u0165 od toho, \u010do chc\u00fa <em>oni<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Predstavte si, \u017ee ste nehmotn\u00fd duch, ktor\u00fd sleduje v\u00fdvoj vesm\u00edru. Za prv\u00fdch 9 mili\u00e1rd rokov sa nestane takmer ni\u010d. \u201eBo\u017ee, to je tak\u00e1 nuda!\u201c s\u0165a\u017eujete sa. \u201ePre\u010do?\u201c p\u00fdta sa v\u00e1\u0161 spolo\u010dn\u00edk. \u201eNi\u010d nem\u00e1 \u017eiadnu h\u013abku ani zlo\u017eitos\u0165, preto\u017ee ni\u010d k&hellip;  <a href=\"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/sk\/2012\/intelligence-explosion\/\">continue reading<\/a> &raquo;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-288","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-chapter"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/288","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=288"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/288\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=288"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=288"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=288"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}