{"id":8,"date":"2011-11-25T12:29:15","date_gmt":"2011-11-25T20:29:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/facingthesing.wpengine.com\/?p=8"},"modified":"2014-05-10T14:48:27","modified_gmt":"2014-05-10T21:48:27","slug":"from-skepticism-to-technical-rationality","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/sk\/2011\/from-skepticism-to-technical-rationality\/","title":{"rendered":"Od skepticizmu k technickej rozumnosti"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"dropcap\">S<\/span>k\u00f4r ne\u017e budem hovori\u0165 o strojovej superinteligencii, potrebujem hovori\u0165 o rozumnosti. Moje ch\u00e1panie rozumnosti ovplyv\u0148uje ako pozer\u00e1m na <em>v\u0161etko<\/em>, a je hlavn\u00fdm d\u00f4vodom, pre\u010do beriem probl\u00e9my strojovej superinteligencie v\u00e1\u017ene.<\/p>\n<p>Keby som komunit\u00e1m \u201eateistov\u201c a \u201eskeptikov\u201c mohol poveda\u0165 iba jednu vec, bolo by to toto:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Skepticizmus a kritick\u00e9 myslenie n\u00e1s u\u010dia d\u00f4le\u017eit\u00e9 lekcie: Mimoriadne tvrdenia si vy\u017eaduj\u00fa mimoriadne d\u00f4kazy. Korel\u00e1cia neznamen\u00e1 kauzalitu. Neberte autoritu pr\u00edli\u0161 v\u00e1\u017ene. Tvrdenia by mali by\u0165 konkr\u00e9tne a falzifikovate\u013en\u00e9. Pam\u00e4tajte pou\u017ei\u0165 Occamovu britvu. Vyvarujte sa logick\u00fdch omylov. Majte otvoren\u00fa myse\u013e, ale nebu\u010fte d\u00f4ver\u010div\u00ed. At\u010f.<\/p>\n<p>Toto v\u0161etko je v\u0161ak len za\u010diatok. V textoch o skepticizme a kritickom myslen\u00ed s\u00fa tieto pravidl\u00e1 iba vo\u013ene op\u00edsan\u00e9, nie s\u00fa matematicky zakotven\u00e9 v dobre podlo\u017eenej normat\u00edvnej te\u00f3rii. Namiesto toho s\u00fa zmeskou nejasn\u00fdch ale v\u0161eobecne u\u017eito\u010dn\u00fdch orienta\u010dn\u00fdch pravidiel. Poskytuj\u00fa dobr\u00fd \u00favod do racion\u00e1lneho myslenia, ale nie s\u00fa viac ne\u017e iba za\u010diatok. U\u017e 40 rokov existuje  mainstreamov\u00e1 kognit\u00edvna veda o rozumnosti, s podrobn\u00fdmi modelmi omylov n\u00e1\u0161ho myslenia a dobre podlo\u017een\u00fdmi matematick\u00fdmi te\u00f3riami, \u010do presne <em>znamen\u00e1<\/em>, \u017ee mysliaci proces <em>je<\/em> \u201enespr\u00e1vny\u201c. Toto by sme mohli nazva\u0165 vedou a\u00a0matematikou technickej rozumnosti. Nau\u010di\u0165 sa ju a uplat\u0148ova\u0165 ju vy\u017eaduje viac n\u00e1mahy ne\u017e skepticizmus pre za\u010diato\u010dn\u00edkov, ale je to mocn\u00e1 vec. M\u00f4\u017ee vylep\u0161i\u0165 v\u00e1\u0161 \u017eivot a\u00a0pom\u00f4c\u0165 v\u00e1m myslie\u0165 jasnej\u0161ie o najn\u00e1ro\u010dnej\u0161\u00edch probl\u00e9moch sveta.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Kognit\u00edvnu vedu o rozumnosti n\u00e1jdete pop\u00edsan\u00fa v ka\u017edej univerzitnej u\u010debnici o myslen\u00ed a rozhodovan\u00ed. Napr\u00edklad:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Baron, <em><a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Thinking-Deciding-Jonathan-Baron\/dp\/0521680433\/\">Thinking and Deciding<\/a><\/em><\/li>\n<li>Hastie &#038; Dawes, <em><a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Rational-Choice-Uncertain-World-Psychology\/dp\/1412959039\/\">Rational Choice in an Uncertain World<\/a><\/em><\/li>\n<li>Bazerman &amp; Moore, <em><a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Judgment-Managerial-Decision-Making-Bazerman\/dp\/0470049456\/\">Judgment in Managerial Decision Making<\/a><\/em><\/li>\n<li>Plous, <em><a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Psychology-Judgment-Decision-Making-McGraw-Hill\/dp\/0070504776\/\">The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making<\/a><\/em><\/li>\n<li>Gilboa, <em><a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Making-Better-Decisions-Decision-Practice\/dp\/1444336525\/\">Making Better Decisions<\/a><\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u010casti z nej n\u00e1jdete aj v ned\u00e1vnych popul\u00e1rnych knih\u00e1ch o \u013eudskej iracionalite, napr\u00edklad:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Ariely, <em><a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Predictably-Irrational-Revised-Expanded-Decisions\/dp\/0061353248\/\">Predictably Irrational<\/a><\/em><\/li>\n<li>Kahneman, <em><a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman\/dp\/0374275637\/\">Thinking, Fast and Slow<\/a><\/em><\/li>\n<li>Thaler &#038; Sunstein, <em><a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Nudge-Improving-Decisions-Health-Happiness\/dp\/014311526X\/\">Nudge<\/a><\/em><\/li>\n<li>Tavris &amp; Aronson, <em><a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Mistakes-Were-Made-But-Not\/dp\/0156033909\/\">Mistakes Were Made: But Not By Me<\/a><\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>A n\u00e1jdete ju, samozrejme, vo vedeck\u00fdch \u010dasopisoch. Tu s\u00fa linky na v\u00fdsledky Google Scholar pre <em>niektor\u00e9<\/em> z k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00fdch pojmov z danej oblasti:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u201e<a href=\"http:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?q=%22heuristics+and+biases%22&amp;hl=en&amp;btnG=Search&amp;as_sdt=1%2C5&amp;as_sdtp=on\">heuristics and biases<\/a>\u201c<\/li>\n<li>\u201e<a href=\"http:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?hl=en&amp;q=debiasing&amp;btnG=Search&amp;as_sdt=0%2C5&amp;as_ylo=&amp;as_vis=0\">debiasing<\/a>\u201c<\/li>\n<li>\u201e<a href=\"http:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?hl=en&amp;q=%22affect+heuristic%22&amp;btnG=Search&amp;as_sdt=0%2C5&amp;as_ylo=&amp;as_vis=0\">affect heuristic<\/a>\u201c<\/li>\n<li>\u201e<a href=\"http:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?hl=en&amp;q=%22myside+bias%22&amp;btnG=Search&amp;as_sdt=0%2C5&amp;as_ylo=&amp;as_vis=0\">myside bias<\/a>\u201c<\/li>\n<li>\u201e<a href=\"http:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?hl=en&amp;q=%22base+rate+fallacy%22&amp;btnG=Search&amp;as_sdt=0%2C5&amp;as_ylo=&amp;as_vis=0\">base rate fallacy<\/a>\u201c<\/li>\n<li>\u201e<a href=\"http:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?hl=en&amp;q=%22framing+effects%22&amp;btnG=Search&amp;as_sdt=0%2C5&amp;as_ylo=&amp;as_vis=0\">framing effects<\/a>\u201c<\/li>\n<li>\u201e<a href=\"http:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?q=%22availability+bias%22&amp;hl=en&amp;btnG=Search&amp;as_sdt=1%2C5&amp;as_sdtp=on\">availability bias<\/a>\u201c<\/li>\n<li>\u201e<a href=\"http:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?hl=en&amp;q=%22conjunction+fallacy%22&amp;btnG=Search&amp;as_sdt=0%2C5&amp;as_ylo=&amp;as_vis=0\">conjunction fallacy<\/a>\u201c<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Tak\u017ee, \u010do je to t\u00e1to mainstreamov\u00e1 kognit\u00edvna veda o rozumnosti \u2013 alebo, ako ju ja budem naz\u00fdva\u0165, technick\u00e1 rozumnos\u0165?<\/p>\n<h3>Technick\u00e1 rozumnos\u0165<\/h3>\n<p>Technick\u00e1 rozumnos\u0165 m\u00e1 dve \u010dasti: normat\u00edvnu a popisn\u00fa.<\/p>\n<p>Normat\u00edvna \u010das\u0165 opisuje <em>z\u00e1kony<\/em> myslenia a konania. V podstate: logika, pravdepodobnos\u0165, a te\u00f3ria rozhodovania. Logika a pravdepodobnos\u0165 opisuj\u00fa, ako by ste sa mali <em>rozm\u00fd\u0161\u013ea\u0165<\/em>, ak chcete maximalizova\u0165 svoje \u0161ance na z\u00edskanie <em>pravdiv\u00e9ho presved\u010denia<\/em>. Te\u00f3ria rozhodovania opisuje, ako by ste mali <em>kona\u0165<\/em>, ak chcete maximalizova\u0165 svoje \u0161ance dosiahnu\u0165 <em>to, \u010do chcete<\/em>. Samozrejme, tieto z\u00e1kony nie s\u00fa fyzik\u00e1lne, ale normat\u00edvne. M\u00f4\u017eete ich poru\u0161i\u0165, ak chcete, a \u013eudia to \u010dasto robia. Av\u0161ak poru\u0161ovan\u00edm z\u00e1konov logiky alebo te\u00f3rie pravdepodobnosti zni\u017eujete svoje \u0161ance dospie\u0165 k spr\u00e1vnemu presved\u010deniu, a poru\u0161ovan\u00edm z\u00e1konov te\u00f3rie rozhodovania zni\u017eujete svoje \u0161ance dosiahnu\u0165 svoje ciele.<\/p>\n<p>Popisn\u00e1 \u010das\u0165 opisuje nie to, ako by sme <em>mali<\/em> rozm\u00fd\u0161\u013ea\u0165 a kona\u0165, ale ako zvy\u010dajne <em>naozaj<\/em> rozm\u00fd\u0161\u013eame a kon\u00e1me. Popisn\u00e1 \u010das\u0165 zah\u0155\u0148a v\u00fdskum ako \u013eudia myslia a rozhoduj\u00fa sa. Zah\u0155\u0148a aj katal\u00f3g \u010dast\u00fdch sp\u00f4sobov, ktor\u00fdmi poru\u0161ujeme z\u00e1kony myslenia a konania z logiky, te\u00f3rie pravdepodobnosti, a te\u00f3rie rozhodovania. Kognit\u00edvny sklon je ur\u010dit\u00fd sp\u00f4sob poru\u0161ovania logiky, te\u00f3rie pravdepodobnosti, alebo te\u00f3rie rozhodovania. Takto je \u201esklon\u201c <em>definovan\u00fd<\/em> (pozri napr\u00edklad <em><a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Thinking-Deciding-Jonathan-Baron\/dp\/0521680433\/\">Thinking and Deciding<\/a><\/em> alebo <em><a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Rationality-Reflective-Mind-Keith-Stanovich\/dp\/0195341147\/\">Rationality and the Reflective Mind<\/a><\/em>; obidve obsahuj\u00fa tabu\u013eku \u010dast\u00fdch sklonov a ktor\u00fa \u010das\u0165 logiky, te\u00f3rie pravdepodobnosti, alebo te\u00f3rie rozhodovania ktor\u00fd z nich poru\u0161uje).<\/p>\n<p>Kognit\u00edvni vedci tie\u017e rozli\u0161uj\u00fa dve oblasti rozumnosti: epistemick\u00e1 a in\u0161trument\u00e1lna.<\/p>\n<p>Epistemick\u00e1 racionalita zah\u0155\u0148a <em>formovanie pravdiv\u00fdch presved\u010den\u00ed<\/em>, alebo: ma\u0165 vo svojej hlave presn\u00fa mapu \u00fazemia vo svete. (Epistemick\u00e1 rozumnos\u0165 sa riadi z\u00e1konmi logiky a te\u00f3rie pravdepodobnosti.)<\/p>\n<p>In\u0161trument\u00e1lna racionalita zah\u0155\u0148a <em>dosahovanie svojich cie\u013eov<\/em>, alebo: maximaliz\u00e1cia \u0161ance na dosiahnutie toho, \u010do chcete. Alebo, form\u00e1lnej\u0161ie: maximaliz\u00e1cia v\u00e1\u0161ho \u201eo\u010dak\u00e1van\u00e9ho \u00fa\u017eitku\u201c. Tie\u017e zn\u00e1me ako \u201ev\u00ed\u0165azstvo\u201c. (In\u0161trument\u00e1lna rozumnos\u0165 sa riadi z\u00e1konmi te\u00f3rie rozhodovania.)<\/p>\n<p>V istom zmysle m\u00e1 in\u0161trument\u00e1lna rozumnos\u0165 prednos\u0165, preto\u017ee zmyslom formovania pravdiv\u00fdch presved\u010den\u00ed je aby v\u00e1m pomohli dosiahnu\u0165 va\u0161e ciele, a niekedy str\u00e1vi\u0165 prive\u013ea \u010dasu epistemickou rozumnos\u0165ou nie je in\u0161trument\u00e1lne rozumn\u00e9. Pozn\u00e1m napr\u00edklad nieko\u013eko \u013eud\u00ed, ktor\u00ed by mali v\u00e4\u010d\u0161iu \u0161ancu dosiahnu\u0165 svoje ciele, keby tr\u00e1vili <em>menej<\/em> \u010dasu \u0161tudovan\u00edm rozumnosti a viac \u010dasu, povedzme, budovan\u00edm svojich soci\u00e1lnych zru\u010dnost\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p>Napriek tomu, m\u00f4\u017ee by\u0165 u\u017eito\u010dn\u00e9 hovori\u0165 o epistemickej a in\u0161trument\u00e1lnej racionalite samostatne. Len aby ste vedeli, \u017ee ke\u010f hovor\u00edm o epistemickej rozumnosti, hovor\u00edm o dodr\u017eiavan\u00ed z\u00e1konov logiky a te\u00f3rie pravdepodobnosti, a \u017ee ke\u010f hovor\u00edm o in\u0161trument\u00e1lnej racionalite, hovor\u00edm o dodr\u017eiavan\u00ed z\u00e1konov te\u00f3rie rozhodovania.<\/p>\n<p>A odteraz, ke\u010f budem hovori\u0165 o \u201erozumnosti\u201c, mysl\u00edm t\u00fdm technick\u00fa rozumnos\u0165.<\/p>\n<p>Av\u0161ak prv ne\u017e poviem viac o rozumnosti, potrebujeme si vyjasni\u0165, \u010do rozumnos\u0165 <em>nie je<\/em>. Chcem v\u00e1m vysvetli\u0165, pre\u010do <a href=\"http:\/\/cs.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Spock\">Spock<\/a> nie je rozumn\u00fd.<\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>k\u00f4r ne\u017e budem hovori\u0165 o strojovej superinteligencii, potrebujem hovori\u0165 o rozumnosti. Moje ch\u00e1panie rozumnosti ovplyv\u0148uje ako pozer\u00e1m na v\u0161etko, a je hlavn\u00fdm d\u00f4vodom, pre\u010do beriem probl\u00e9my strojovej superinteligencie v\u00e1\u017ene. Keby som komunit\u00e1m \u201eateistov\u201c a \u201eskeptikov\u201c mohol poveda\u0165 iba jednu vec,&hellip;  <a href=\"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/sk\/2011\/from-skepticism-to-technical-rationality\/\">continue reading<\/a> &raquo;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-chapter"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}