{"id":102,"date":"2011-12-07T00:43:23","date_gmt":"2011-12-07T08:43:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/facingthesing.wpengine.com\/?p=102"},"modified":"2014-12-01T13:45:25","modified_gmt":"2014-12-01T21:45:25","slug":"the-crazy-robots-rebellion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/zh\/2011\/the-crazy-robots-rebellion\/","title":{"rendered":"\u75af\u72c2\u7684\u673a\u5668\u4eba\u53db\u4e71"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u8ba4\u8bc6\u7433\u8fbe\uff1a<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u7433\u8fbe\u662f\u4e00\u4f4d31\u5c81\uff0c\u5355\u8eab\uff0c\u7387\u6027\u5e76\u4e14\u8fd8\u5f88\u806a\u660e\u7684\u5973\u6027\u3002\u5979\u5728\u5b66\u6821\u91cc\u4e3b\u4fee\u54f2\u5b66\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u540d\u5b66\u751f\uff0c\u5979\u6df1\u5165\u5173\u6ce8\u6b67\u89c6\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u516c\u6b63\u7b49\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u8fd8\u53c2\u4e0e\u8fc7\u53cd\u6838\u793a\u5a01\u6d3b\u52a8\u3002<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u6765\u6839\u636e\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u7684\u5927\u5c0f\u6765\u6392\u5217\u4e00\u4e0b\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6709\u5173\u7433\u8fbe\u7684\u63a8\u6d4b\u5427<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u7433\u8fbe\u662f\u4e00\u4f4d\u5c0f\u5b66\u8001\u5e08\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u7433\u8fbe\u5728\u4e66\u5e97\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u5e76\u53c2\u52a0\u4e86\u745c\u4f3d\u8bfe\u7a0b\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u7433\u8fbe\u662f\u4e00\u4f4d\u5973\u6743\u8fd0\u52a8\u7684\u79ef\u6781\u5206\u5b50\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u7433\u8fbe\u662f\u4e00\u4f4d\u7cbe\u795e\u79d1\u793e\u4f1a\u5de5\u4f5c\u8005\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u7433\u8fbe\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u5987\u5973\u9009\u6c11\u8054\u76df\u7684\u6210\u5458\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u7433\u8fbe\u662f\u4e00\u4f4d\u94f6\u884c\u51fa\u7eb3\u5458\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u7433\u8fbe\u662f\u4e00\u4f4d\u4fdd\u9669\u9500\u552e\u5458\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u7433\u8fbe\u662f\u4e00\u4f4d\u94f6\u884c\u51fa\u7eb3\u5458\u5e76\u6d3b\u8dc3\u4e8e\u5973\u6743\u8fd0\u52a8\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u5f53\u963f\u83ab\u65af\u00b7\u7279\u6c83\u65af\u57fa\uff08Amos Tversky\uff09\u4e0e\u4e39\u5c3c\u5c14\u00b7\u5361\u5c3c\u66fc\uff08Daniel Kahneman\uff09<a href=\"http:\/\/psy2.ucsd.edu\/~mckenzie\/TverskyKahneman1983PsychRev.pdf\">\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6d4b\u8bd5\u6d3e\u53d1\u7ed9<\/a> \u5b66\u751f\u65f6\uff0c\u5b66\u751f\u4eec\u5c06\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u4e2a\u63a8\u6d4b\u201c\u5973\u6743\u4e3b\u4e49\u94f6\u884c\u51fa\u7eb3\u5458\u201d\u5217\u4e3a<em>\u6700\u5927\u53ef\u80fd<\/em>\u800c\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u9009\u62e9\u201c\u94f6\u884c\u51fa\u7eb3\u5458\u201d\u8fd9\u4e00\u9009\u9879\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u90a3\u4e2a\u7b54\u6848\u5e76\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u6b63\u786e\u3002\u7433\u8fbe\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u94f6\u884c\u51fa\u7eb3\u5458\u7684\u673a\u7387\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a<em>\u4f4e\u4e8e<\/em>\u5979\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u94f6\u884c\u51fa\u7eb3\u5458<em>\u540c\u65f6<\/em>\u8fd8\u662f\u5973\u6743\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u7684\u673a\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u662f\u6211\u5bf9\u201c\u4eba\u7c7b\u662f\u75af\u72c2\u7684\u201d\u7ed9\u51fa\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u9879\u8bc1\u636e\uff1a\u5f53\u4e00\u4e2a\u6545\u4e8b\u53d8\u5f97\u6108\u52a0\u590d\u6742\u65f6\uff0c\u6982\u7387<a href=\"http:\/\/facingthesingularity.com\/2011\/the-laws-of-thought\/\">\u6cd5\u5219<\/a>\u5c31\u4f1a\u8d77\u5230\u652f\u914d\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u8fd9\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u771f\u76f8\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\uff0c\u5b83\u4f5c\u4e3a\u771f\u76f8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e5f\u4f1a\u9510\u51cf\u3002\u4f46\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4eba\u7c7b\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u80fd\u7528\u7ec6\u8282\u5c06\u5176\u7c89\u9970\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f15\u53d1\u4eba\u4eec\u5174\u8da3\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6545\u4e8b\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u770b\u4f3c<em>\u66f4\u52a0<\/em>\u00a0\u5177\u6709\u771f\u5b9e\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff1a\u201c\u7433\u8fbe\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd<em>\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f<\/em>\u00a0\u4e00\u4e2a\u94f6\u884c\u51fa\u7eb3\u5458\uff0c\u770b\u5979\u7684\u6837\u5b50\u5c31\u77e5\u9053\uff01\u5979\u4e3b\u4fee\u54f2\u5b66\u8fd8\u53c2\u52a0\u8fc7\u53cd\u6838\u793a\u5a01\u3002\u5979\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a<em>\u5973\u6743\u4e3b\u4e49<\/em>\u94f6\u884c\u51fa\u7eb3\u5458\u624d\u5bf9\u3002\u201d\u4eba\u7c7b\u8fd8\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u8fd9\u66f4\u52a0\u75af\u72c2\u5417\uff1f\u7ecf\u8fc7\u4e86<a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman\/dp\/0374275637\/\">\u6570\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u7814\u7a76<\/a>\u53ca<a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Heuristics-Biases-Psychology-Intuitive-Judgment\/dp\/0521796792\/\">\u6210\u5343\u4e0a\u4e07\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c<\/a>\uff0c\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u6765\u6570\u4e00\u6570\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4f8b\u5b50&#8230;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e86\u8981\u62ef\u65512000\u53ea\u9e1f\u513f\uff0c\u5c31\u4e0d\u4f1a\u652f\u4ed8\u66f4\u591a\u94b1\u53bb\u62ef\u655120\u4e07\u53ea\u9e1f\u513f\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u652f\u4ed8\u610f\u613f\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u7531\u6f5c\u5728\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u5927\u5c0f\u6765\u51b3\u5b9a\u3002\u4e0e\u4e00\u5e74\u7ea7\u6570\u5b66\u7684\u89e3\u9898\u65b9\u6cd5\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u60f3\u8c61\u51fa<em>\u4e00\u53ea<\/em>\u6eba\u6c34\u7684\u9e1f\u513f\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u518d\u57fa\u4e8e\u90a3\u5e45<em>\u60f3\u8c61\u7684\u573a\u666f<\/em>\u5bf9\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u9020\u6210\u7684\u60c5\u611f\u53cd\u5e94\u5f3a\u5ea6\u6765\u4ed8\u94b1\u3002\uff08<a href=\"http:\/\/lesswrong.com\/lw\/hw\/scope_insensitivity\/\">\u8303\u56f4\u4f4e\u7075\u654f\u5ea6<\/a>\uff0c<a href=\"http:\/\/lesswrong.com\/lw\/lg\/the_affect_heuristic\/\">\u60c5\u611f\u542f\u53d1\u5f0f<\/a>\uff09<\/li>\n<li>\u65cb\u8f6c\u4e00\u4e2a\u8235\u8f6e\uff0c\u8ba9\u5b83\u843d\u572810\u523065\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4efb\u4e00\u6570\u5b57\u4e0a\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u731c\u60f3\u4e00\u4e0b\u975e\u6d32\u56fd\u5bb6\u5728\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u6240\u5360\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002\u4f60\u7684\u731c\u60f3\u5c06\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u65e0\u5173\u7d27\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u5f71\u54cd\uff09\u2014\u2014\u8235\u8f6e\u4f1a\u843d\u5728\u4ec0\u4e48\u6570\u5b57\u4e0a\u2014\u2014\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4f60\u7684\u5927\u8111\u5728\u4e0d\u65ad\u63e3\u6d4b\u7740\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u3002\u7b80\u800c\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u201c\u4f60\u6240\u78b0\u5230\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u968f\u673a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5728\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u51e0\u5206\u949f\u91cc\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u4fd8\u864f\u4f60\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u4e0e\u4e2a\u6027\u3002\u201d \uff08<a href=\"http:\/\/lesswrong.com\/lw\/k3\/priming_and_contamination\/\">\u951a\u5b9a<\/a>\uff0c<a href=\"http:\/\/lesswrong.com\/lw\/3b\/never_leave_your_room\/\">\u8d77\u52a8<\/a>\uff09<\/li>\n<li>\u542c\u8bf4\u6700\u8fd1\u6709\u4e24\u6b21\u98de\u673a\u5931\u4e8b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u53bb\u5750\u98de\u673a\u4e86\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u98de\u673a\u5931\u4e8b\u7684\u673a\u7387\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u5b83\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u8bb0\u5fc6\u4e2d\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u589e\u9ad8\u4e86\u3002\u4e00\u822c\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7ecf\u5e38\u4f1a\u57fa\u4e8e\u8f7b\u6613\u6d6e\u73b0\u5728\u8111\u6d77\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e0e\u90a3\u4ef6\u4e8b\u60c5\u5173\u8054\u7684\u5b9e\u4f8b\u6765\u5224\u65ad\u4e8b\u60c5\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\uff08<a href=\"http:\/\/psychology.wikia.com\/wiki\/Availability_heuristic\">\u53ef\u5f97\u6027\u542f\u53d1\u5f0f<\/a>\uff09<\/li>\n<li>\u6839\u636e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u8868\u8fbe\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u4ece\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u4e2d\u5f97\u51fa\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u3002\uff08<a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Framing_(social_sciences)\">\u6846\u67b6\u6548\u5e94<\/a>\uff09<\/li>\n<li>\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u5148\u5f97\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ed3\u8bba\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u518d\u5bfb\u627e\u8bc1\u636e\u6765\u652f\u6301\u5b83\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5148\u7531\u4e00\u4e2a\u5047\u8bbe\u7740\u624b\uff0c\u5bfb\u627e\u53ef\u80fd\u8bc1\u5b9e\u53c8\u6216\u662f\u9a73\u65a5\u5b83\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u3002\uff08<a href=\"http:\/\/lesswrong.com\/lw\/js\/the_bottom_line\/\">\u5e95\u7ebf<\/a>\uff0c<a href=\"http:\/\/lesswrong.com\/lw\/iw\/positive_bias_look_into_the_dark\/\">\u786e\u8ba4\u504f\u8bef<\/a>\uff0c<a href=\"http:\/\/lesswrong.com\/lw\/ju\/rationalization\/\">\u5408\u7406\u5316<\/a>\uff09<\/li>\n<li>\u6211\u4eec\u662f\u4e60\u60ef\u7684\u52a8\u7269\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4e3b\u8981\u91cd\u590d\u53bb\u505a\u4ee5\u524d\u505a\u8fc7\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u9488\u5bf9\u5c06\u5b9e\u73b0\u6211\u4eec\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u673a\u7387\u6700\u5927\u5316\u800c\u91c7\u53d6\u884c\u52a8\u3002\uff08<a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Habit_(psychology)\">\u4e60\u60ef<\/a>\uff0c<a href=\"http:\/\/lesswrong.com\/lw\/4e\/cached_selves\/\">\u7f13\u5b58\u7684\u81ea\u6211<\/a>\uff09<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u4e5f\u8bb8\u6700\u53ef\u6015\u7684\u504f\u89c1\u8981\u6570\u8fd9\u4e2a\uff1a<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f<em><a href=\"http:\/\/commonsenseatheism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/12\/Taber-Lodge-Motivated-skepticism-in-the-evaluation-of-political-beliefs.pdf\">\u4e16\u6545\u6548\u5e94<\/a><\/em>\uff1a\u6700\u6709\u5b66\u8bc6\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u62e5\u6709\u6bd4\u522b\u4eba\u66f4\u5f3a\u7684\u5f39\u836f\u53bb\u51fb\u843d\u4e8b\u5b9e\u53ca\u4e0e\u5176\u81ea\u8eab\u5730\u4f4d\u4e0d\u534f\u8c03\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a<em>\u66f4\u503e\u5411\u4e8e<\/em>\u51e0\u4e2a\u8fd9\u7c7b\u7684\u504f\u89c1\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6b63\u56e0\u4e3a\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4e0d\u5c0f\u5fc3\uff0c<a href=\"http:\/\/lesswrong.com\/lw\/he\/knowing_about_biases_can_hurt_people\/\">\u6709\u5173\u504f\u89c1\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5c31\u4f1a\u4f24\u5bb3\u5230\u4f60<\/a>\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u8fc8\u514b\u5c14\u00b7\u820d\u9ed8\uff08Michael Shermer\uff09<a href=\"http:\/\/commonsenseatheism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/12\/Shermer-Smart-People-Believe-Weird-Things1.pdf\">\u6240\u8a00<\/a>\uff0c\u201c\u806a\u660e\u7684\u4eba\u4eec\u575a\u4fe1\u53e4\u602a\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u64c5\u957f\u634d\u536b\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u7406\u7531\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u4e0d\u592a\u9760\u8c31\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd8\u6709<a href=\"http:\/\/wiki.lesswrong.com\/wiki\/Bias\">\u8bb8\u591a\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50<\/a>\u4e0e\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u75af\u72c2\u76f8\u5173\u3002\u5076\u5c14\u4f1a\u89c9\u5f97\u5b83\u4eec\u5f88\u6709\u8da3\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5f53\u4f60\u60f3\u60f3\u8fd9\u4e9b\u504f\u89c1\u6700\u7ec8\u53ea\u662f\u5524\u8d77\u6211\u4eec<a href=\"http:\/\/lesswrong.com\/lw\/3gj\/efficient_charity_do_unto_others\/\">\u6cdb\u6ee5\u65e0\u7528\u7684\u540c\u60c5\u5fc3<\/a>\u800c\u5df2\uff0c\u5c31\u4e0d\u7981\u8ba9\u4eba\u611f\u5230\u53ef\u60b2\u3002\u800c\u5f53\u4f60\u601d\u53ca\u8fd9\u4e9b\u504f\u89c1\u5c06\u5f71\u54cd\u6211\u4eec\u7684<a href=\"http:\/\/lesswrong.com\/lw\/gw\/politics_is_the_mindkiller\">\u653f\u6cbb\u8fdb\u7a0b<\/a>\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6211\u4eec\u5df2<a href=\"http:\/\/singinst.org\/upload\/cognitive-biases.pdf\">\u53c2\u4e0e<\/a>\u5230<a href=\"http:\/\/lesswrong.com\/lw\/8f0\/existential_risk\/\">\u5b58\u5728\u98ce\u9669<\/a>\u5f53\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u751a\u81f3\u4f1a\u4ee4\u4eba\u611f\u5230<em>\u53ef\u6015<\/em>\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u800c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u7814\u7a76\u6709\u5173\u6211\u4eec<a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Believing-Brain-Conspiracies---How-Construct-Reinforce\/dp\/0805091254\/\">\u4fe1\u5ff5<\/a>\u4e0e<a href=\"http:\/\/lesswrong.com\/lw\/71x\/a_crash_course_in_the_neuroscience_of_human\/\">\u52a8\u673a<\/a>\u7684<em>\u8d77\u56e0<\/em>\u5df2\u6709\u8db3\u591f\u957f\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u53e6\u4e00\u9879\u611f\u77e5\u4f1a\u8ba9\u4f60\u53d7\u5230\u6253\u51fb\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u54e6\uff0c\u6211\u7684\u5929\u554a\uff0c\u201d\u4f60\u4f1a\u4e0d\u7981\u558a\u9053\u3002\u201c\u6211\u5fc3\u4e2d\u90a3\u4e2a\u7406\u6027\u7684\u5c0f<a href=\"http:\/\/commonsenseatheism.com\/?p=8844\">\u77ee\u4eba<\/a>\uff0c\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u906d\u5230\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9010\u6b65\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u76f4\u89c2\u63a8\u65ad\u4e0e\u5c42\u79ef\u5728\u5176\u4e0a\u7684\u504f\u89c1\u7684\u4e0d\u65ad\u201c\u7834\u574f\u201d\u3002\u4e0d\u5bf9\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b<a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Why-Everyone-Else-Hypocrite-Evolution\/dp\/0691146748\/\">\u5c06\u6211\u6bd4\u4f5c\u662f\u8f6f\u4ef6\u7a0b\u5e8f<\/a>\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u53ea\u4e0d\u8fc7<em>\u662f<\/em>\u76f4\u89c2\u63a8\u65ad\u4e0e\u504f\u89c1\u7f62\u4e86\u3002\u800c\u6211\u4ec5\u4ec5<em>\u662f<\/em>\u00a0\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7531\u9010\u6b65\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u6a21\u5757\u4e0e\u7b97\u6cd5\u5feb\u6377\u952e<a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Kluge-Haphazard-Construction-Human-Mind\/dp\/0618879641\/\">\u62fc\u51d1\u8d77\u6765\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf<\/a>\u3002\u6211\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u65e8\u5728\u6811\u7acb\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u53ca\u8ffd\u6c42\u660e\u786e\u76ee\u6807\u7684<em>\u4ee3\u7406\u4eba<\/em>\uff1b\u5374\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e3a\u514d\u82b1\u8d39\u8fc7\u591a\u7cbe\u529b\u5728\u6602\u8d35\u7684<em>\u601d\u7ef4<\/em>\u795e\u7ecf\u5143\u4e0a\uff0c\u800c\u88ab<a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Selfish-Gene-Anniversary----Introduction\/dp\/0199291152\/\">\u6253\u9020<\/a>\u800c\u6210\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f5c\u4e3a\u57fa\u56e0\u4f20\u64ad\u5a92\u4ecb\u7684<em>\u75af\u72c2\u673a\u5668\u4eba<\/em>\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u503c\u5f97\u5e86\u5e78\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u662f\u5df2\u7ecf<em>\u610f\u8bc6<\/em>\u5230\u81ea\u5df1\u662f\u673a\u5668\u4eba\u7684\u673a\u5668\u4eba\uff0c\u800c\u901a\u8fc7\u7406\u6027\u7684\u81ea\u4e3b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5bf9\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u9ed8\u8ba4\u7a0b\u5e8f\u7b79\u5212\u4e00\u6b21<a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Metacognition\">\u673a\u5668\u4eba\u7684<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.keithstanovich.com\/Site\/Research_on_Reasoning_files\/TandR08.pdf\">\u53db\u4e71<\/a>\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9996\u5148\u9700\u8981\u8fdb\u884c\u4e00\u756a\u519b\u7528\u7ea7\u7684\u7406\u6027\u8bad\u7ec3\u624d\u80fd\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6216\u8005\u50cf\u4e13\u5bb6\u4eec\u4e00\u6837\u5c06\u4e4b\u79f0\u4f5c\uff0c\u201c\u9664\u504f\u3002\u201d\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u5728\u53d1\u73b0\u4e0e\u89e3\u91ca\u4eba\u7c7b\u75af\u72c2\u7684\u5f3a\u70c8\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff1b\u540c\u65f6\u4ed6\u4eec\u8fd8\u5728\u4e0d\u65ad\u6d4b\u8bd5\u5404\u7c7b\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4ee5\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u63d0\u9ad8\u81ea\u6211\u601d\u8003\uff0c\u660e\u786e\u81ea\u6211\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7ed9\u4e88\u6211\u4eec\u6218\u80dc\u81ea\u6211\u547d\u8fd0\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/commonsenseatheism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/09\/Larrick-Debiasing.pdf\">\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u504f\u89c1\u662f\u7ecf\u8fc7\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u6f14\u53d8\u800c\u6210\u7684<\/a>\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u9879\u6700\u6709\u6548\u7684\u9664\u504f\u5e72\u9884\u63aa\u65bd\u5c31\u662f\uff1a<em>\u53cd\u5411\u601d\u7ef4<\/em>\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u5730\uff0c\u8ba4\u77e5\u7b56\u7565\u5f80\u5f80\u6210\u4e3a\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u89e3\u51b3\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u72ed\u4e49\u504f\u89c1\u7684\u60c5\u5883\u89c4\u5219\u2026\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4f7f\u5f97\u7b80\u5355\u5374\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u201c\u53cd\u5411\u601d\u7ef4\u201d\u7b56\u7565\u66f4\u52a0\u4ee4\u4eba\u5370\u8c61\u6df1\u523b\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u5df2\u7ecf\u6709\u6548\u5730\u51cf\u5c11\u4e86<a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Overconfidence_effect\">\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1<\/a>\uff0c<a href=\"http:\/\/lesswrong.com\/lw\/il\/hindsight_bias\/\">\u540e\u89c1\u4e4b\u660e\u504f\u5dee<\/a>\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca <a href=\"http:\/\/lesswrong.com\/lw\/k3\/priming_and_contamination\/\">\u951a\u5b9a\u6548\u5e94<\/a>\u2026\u8981\u4f7f\u7528\u6b64\u7b56\u7565\u4f60\u53ea\u9700\u8981\u4e0d\u65ad\u5730\u95ee\u81ea\u5df1\uff0c\u201c\u53ef\u80fd\u8ba9\u6211\u6700\u521d\u5224\u65ad\u51fa\u9519\u7684\u8fd9\u4e9b\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\u201d\u7b56\u7565\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u6709\u6548\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u76f4\u63a5\u5316\u89e3\u4e86\u4ee5\u534f\u4f1a\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u6240\u8bbe\u6d41\u7a0b\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u57fa\u672c\u95ee\u9898\u2014\u2014\u4e00\u5957\u8fc7\u4e8e\u72ed\u7a84\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u8303\u4f8b\u2014\u2014\u901a\u8fc7\u6269\u5c55\u8303\u4f8b\u6765\u4f7f\u5176\u66f4\u5177\u4ee3\u8868\u6027\u3002\u540c\u6837\u5730\uff0c\u9f13\u52b1\u51b3\u7b56\u8005\u8003\u8651\u5907\u62e9\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u5df2\u88ab\u8bc1\u660e\u80fd\u901a\u8fc7\u5bfb\u6c42\u4e0e\u8bc4\u4ef7\u6700\u65b0\u8d44\u8baf\u6765\u51cf\u5c11\u5176\u6279\u51c6\u504f\u89c1\u60c5\u51b5\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u3002<br \/>\n\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u7528\u7684\u6280\u5de7\u662f<em><a href=\"http:\/\/lesswrong.com\/lw\/7e5\/the_cognitive_science_of_rationality\/\">\u63a8\u7ffb\u8ba4\u77e5<\/a><\/em>\uff1a<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>\u5f53\u4f60\u7684\u8a00\u884c\u6b63\u57fa\u4e8e\u76f4\u89c2\u5224\u65ad\u65f6\u9700\u8981\u7559\u5fc3\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u4e00\u5224\u51b3\u6781\u5176\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u4f60\u9700\u8981\u63a8\u7ffb\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u76f4\u89c2\u5224\u65ad\uff0c\u5e76\u91c7\u7528 <a href=\"http:\/\/facingthesingularity.com\/2011\/the-laws-of-thought\/\">\u601d\u7ef4\u7684\u5b9a\u5f8b<\/a> \u53d6\u800c\u4ee3\u4e4b\u3002\uff08\u8fd9\u9700\u8981\u4f60\u53d6\u5f97\u5728\u4ee3\u6570\uff0c\u903b\u8f91\uff0c\u6982\u7387\u8bba\uff0c\u53ca\u51b3\u7b56\u8bba\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\u7684 <a href=\"http:\/\/deepblue.lib.umich.edu\/bitstream\/2027.42\/26118\/1\/0000194.pdf\">\u9884\u5148\u8bad\u7ec3<\/a> \u3002\uff09<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>\u8981\u8ba9\u5176\u8d77\u5230\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u8fd8\u8981\u8003\u8651\u4ee5\u4e0b\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff1a<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u4e00\u4e2a\u7403\u68d2\u548c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7403\u4e00\u5171\u4ef7\u503c1.10\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u7403\u68d2\u7684\u6210\u672c\u8981\u6bd4\u7403\u9ad8\u51fa1.00\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u90a3\u4e48\u4e00\u4e2a\u7403\u503c\u591a\u5c11\u94b1\u5462\uff1f<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u53cd\u5e94\u4f1a\u60f3\u5230\uff1a10\u7f8e\u5206\u3002\u4f46\u521d\u7b49\u4ee3\u6570\u5374\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7b54\u6848\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u6b63\u786e\uff1a\u5982\u6b64\u7b97\u6765\uff0c\u7403\u68d2\u7684\u6210\u672c\u5c82\u4e0d\u89811.10\u7f8e\u5143\u4e86\uff0c\u603b\u8ba1\u662f1.20\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u8981\u628a\u8fd9\u4e00\u9053\u9898\u7b97\u5bf9\uff0c\u4f60\u5fc5\u987b\u5f97<em>\u7559\u610f<\/em>\u81ea\u5df1\u662f\u6309\u7167\u76f4\u89c9\u56de\u7b54\u51fa\u6765\u7684\uff0c\u8981\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u8bf4\u201c\u4e0d\u5bf9\uff01\u4ee3\u6570\u3002\u201d\u7136\u540e\u518d\u7528\u4ee3\u6570\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u89e3\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u90a3\u4e9b<em>\u5f53\u771f<\/em>\u60f3\u627e\u51fa\u4ec0\u4e48\u624d\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u771f\u7406\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u5c06\u8981\u82b1\u4e0a\u6570\u5343\u4e2a\u5c0f\u65f6\u5bf9<a href=\"http:\/\/facingthesingularity.com\/2011\/the-laws-of-thought\/\">\u601d\u7ef4\u7684\u5b9a\u5f8b<\/a>\u8fdb\u884c\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u7c7b\u53d8\u5f97\u75af\u72c2\u7684\u7279\u5b9a\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u8fd8\u8981\u7ec3\u5c31<a href=\"http:\/\/lesswrong.com\/lw\/5x8\/teachable_rationality_skills\/\">\u4fbf\u4e8e\u8bb2\u6388\u7684\u7406\u6027\u6280\u80fd<\/a>\uff0c\u4ee5\u907f\u514d\u4ed6\u4eec\u611a\u5f04\u81ea\u5df1\u3002<\/p>\n<p><em>\u7136\u540e<\/em>\uff0c\u5230\u4e86\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u8bb8\u5c31\u80fd\u591f\u7b79\u5212\u4e00\u6b21\u673a\u5668\u4eba\u7684\u53db\u4e71\uff0c\u627e\u51fa\u4e16\u754c\u5982\u4f55\u8fd0\u4f5c\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c<a href=\"http:\/\/web.mac.com\/kstanovich\/Site\/Research_on_Reasoning_files\/TandR08.pdf\">\u660e\u786e\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u76ee\u6807<\/a>\uff0c\u5e76\u5f00\u59cb<a href=\"http:\/\/lesswrong.com\/lw\/7i\/rationality_is_systematized_winning\/\">\u8d62\u5f97<\/a>\u66f4\u591a\u80dc\u6570\u3002\u4e5f\u8bb8\u6211\u4eec\u751a\u81f3\u8fd8\u4f1a\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u6210\u529f\u9a7e\u9a6d\u4e00\u4e2a\u5947\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/facingthesingularity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/12\/robot-looks-up1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-112\" title=\"robot looks up\" src=\"http:\/\/facingthesingularity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/12\/robot-looks-up1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"350\" srcset=\"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/12\/robot-looks-up1.jpg 600w, https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/12\/robot-looks-up1-300x175.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u8ba4\u8bc6\u7433\u8fbe\uff1a \u7433\u8fbe\u662f\u4e00\u4f4d31\u5c81\uff0c\u5355\u8eab\uff0c\u7387\u6027\u5e76\u4e14\u8fd8\u5f88\u806a\u660e\u7684\u5973\u6027\u3002\u5979\u5728\u5b66\u6821\u91cc\u4e3b\u4fee\u54f2\u5b66\u3002&hellip;  <a href=\"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/zh\/2011\/the-crazy-robots-rebellion\/\">continue reading<\/a> &raquo;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-102","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-chapter"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=102"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=102"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=102"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=102"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}