{"id":117,"date":"2011-12-15T13:17:44","date_gmt":"2011-12-15T21:17:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/facingthesing.wpengine.com\/?p=117"},"modified":"2014-12-01T13:46:52","modified_gmt":"2014-12-01T21:46:52","slug":"not-built-to-think-about-ai","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/zh\/2011\/not-built-to-think-about-ai\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5e76\u975e\u4e3a\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u601d\u7d22\u800c\u8bbe"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\ufeff<span class=\"dropcap\">\u5728<\/span><em>\u7ec8\u7ed3\u8005\uff08The Terminator\uff09<\/em>\u7535\u5f71\u4e2d\uff0c<a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Skynet_(Terminator)\">\u5929\u7f51\uff08Skynet\uff09<\/a>\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u53d8\u5f97\u6709\u81ea\u6211\u610f\u8bc6\uff0c\u6740\u6b7b\u4e86\u6570\u5341\u4ebf\u7684\u4eba\u4eec\uff0c\u8fd8\u6d3e\u51fa\u673a\u5668\u4eba\u6740\u624b\u6765\u6b7c\u706d\u5269\u4f59\u7684\u4e00\u7fa4\u4eba\u7c7b\u62b5\u6297\u6218\u58eb\u3002\u8fd9\u542c\u8d77\u6765\u5f88\u7cdf\u7cd5\uff0c\u4f46\u5728<em>\u56fd\u5bb6\u516c\u5171\u5e7f\u64ad\u7535\u53f0\uff08NPR\uff09<\/em>\u7684<a href=\"http:\/\/www.npr.org\/2011\/01\/11\/132840775\/The-Singularity-Humanitys-Last-Invention\">\u5173\u4e8e\u667a\u529b\u7206\u70b8<\/a>\u8282\u76ee\u4e2d\uff0c\u6613\u8da3\u7f51\uff08Ebay\uff09\u7684\u7a0b\u5e8f\u5458\u57fa\u592b\u00b7\u7f57\u7279\u6c99\u9ed8\uff08Keefe Roedersheimer\uff09\u5374\u89e3\u91ca\u9053\uff0c\u521b\u9020\u4e00\u4e2a<em>\u771f\u5b9e\u7684<\/em>\u673a\u5668\u8d85\u667a\u80fd\u4f1a\u6bd4\u90a3\u66f4<em>\u7cdf\u7cd5<\/em>\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u4f1a\u6bd4<em>\u7ec8\u7ed3\u8005\uff08The Terminator\uff09<\/em>\u7535\u5f71\u4e2d\u7684\u8fd8\u8981\u7cdf\u7cd5\u5417\uff1fNPR\u7684\u4e3b\u6301\u4eba\u9a6c\u4e01\u00b7\u5361\u65af\u7279\uff08Martin Kaste\uff09\u95ee\u9053\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u5bf9\uff0c\u6bd4\u90a3\u8fd8\u8981\u7cdf\u7cd5\u51e0\u500d\uff0c\u201d\u57fa\u592b\u56de\u7b54\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u5728\u7535\u5f71\u91cc\u9762\u90a3\u7b80\u76f4\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u7247\u5e9f\u589f\u554a\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u85cf\u533f\u5728\u88ab\u70e7\u6bc1\u7684\u5efa\u7b51\u7269\u4e2d\uff0c\u8eb2\u95ea\u7740\u6fc0\u5149\u7684\u626b\u5c04\u3002\u8fd8\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u80fd\u6bd4<em>\u90a3\u79cd\u60c5\u666f<\/em>\u66f4\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u5440\uff1f\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u6240\u6709\u7684\u4eba\u90fd\u6b7b\u4e86\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u4ed6\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4f1a\u8fd9\u4e48\u8bf4\u5462\uff1f\u4e3a\u4e86\u786e\u4fdd\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u5927\u591a\u6570\u76ee\u6807\u2014\u2014\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u89e3\u51b3 <a href=\"http:\/\/singinst.org\/ourresearch\/publications\/CFAI\/info\/glossary.html#gloss_riemann_hypothesis_catastrophe\">\u9ece\u66fc\u5047\u8bbe\uff08Riemann hypothesis\uff09<\/a>\u8fd8\u662f\u5c06\u77f3\u6cb9\u7684\u4ea7\u91cf\u6700\u5927\u5316\u2014\u2014\u539f\u56e0\u5f88\u7b80\u5355\uff0c<a href=\"http:\/\/singinst.org\/upload\/artificial-intelligence-risk.pdf\">\u90a3\u5c31\u662f<\/a>\u201c\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u5e76\u4e0d\u7231\u4f60\uff0c\u5b83\u4e5f\u4e0d\u6068\u4f60\uff0c\u4f46\u7531\u4e8e\u4f60\u662f\u7531\u539f\u5b50\u7ec4\u6210\u7684\uff0c\u5bf9\u5b83\u6765\u8bf4\u8fd8\u4f1a\u6709\u5176\u5b83\u7528\u9014\u3002\u201d\u800c\u5f53\u4e00\u4e2a\u8d85\u4eba\u7c7b\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\u6211\u4eec\u4eba\u7c7b\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a<em>\u6297\u62d2<\/em>\u5c06\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u539f\u5b50\u7528\u4f5c\u201c\u5176\u5b83\u7528\u9014\u201d\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c<em>\u5a01\u80c1<\/em>\u5230\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u4e0e\u5b83\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u65f6\uff0c\u5c06\u4f1a\u6fc0\u53d1\u5b83\u60f3<em>\u5c3d\u5feb<\/em>\u5f7b\u5e95\u5730\u6467\u6bc1\u4eba\u7c7b \u2014\u2014\u5b83\u5f53\u7136\u4e0d\u5e0c\u671b\u8ba9\u4e00\u652f\u52c7\u731b\u3001\u53ef\u4ee5\u62ef\u6551\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u82f1\u96c4\u961f\u4f0d\u4e86\u89e3\u5176\u81f4\u547d\u7684\u5f31\u70b9\uff0c\u9664\u975e\u662f\u4ed6\u4eec\u80fd\u653e\u4e0b\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u5206\u6b67\u2026\u2026\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u786e\u4fdd\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u5927\u591a\u6570\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u5c3d\u53ef\u80fd\u9ad8\u6548\u5730\u6d88\u9664\u4eba\u7c7b\u5bf9\u5176\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u5b9e\u73b0\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7684<a href=\"http:\/\/facingthesingularity.com\/2011\/the-laws-of-thought\/\">\u9884\u671f\u6548\u7528<\/a>\u6700\u5927\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/facingthesingularity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/12\/mushroomcloud.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright size-medium wp-image-134\" title=\"mushroomcloud\" src=\"http:\/\/facingthesingularity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/12\/mushroomcloud-300x223.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"223\" srcset=\"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/12\/mushroomcloud-300x223.jpg 300w, https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/12\/mushroomcloud.jpg 545w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a>\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u9762\u5bf9\u73b0\u5b9e\u5427\uff1a\u5176\u5b9e\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u8f7b\u6613\u5c31\u80fd\u6740\u6b7b\u6211\u4eec\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u8981\u6bd4\u6d3e\u51fa<em>\u8d70<\/em>\u5728<em>\u5927\u8857<\/em>\u4e0a\uff0c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5f88\u4eab\u53d7\u5c06\u4eba\u7c7b\u6254\u5230\u5899\u4e0a\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u6298\u65ad\u4ed6\u4eec\u8116\u5b50\u7684<em>\u4eba\u5f62<\/em>\u673a\u5668\u4eba\u8981\u7b80\u5355\u5f97\u591a\u3002\u751a\u81f3\u8fd8\u6709\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u91c7\u53d6\u7a81\u7136\u653b\u51fb\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u529e\u6cd5\uff0c\u5728\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u5730\u5f15\u53d1\u540c\u6b65\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u516c\u7136\u5411\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u53cd\u6297\u52bf\u529b\u5ba3\u6218\uff0c\u5c06\u4f1a\u6765\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u8fc5\u901f\u4e0e\u81f4\u547d\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff1a\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e0d\u8fd0\u7528\u5230\u8d85\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u4e00\u5207\u80fd\u529b\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e00\u79cd\u80fd\u5728\u7a7a\u6c14\u4e2d\u4f20\u64ad\u3001\u5177\u9ad8\u4f20\u67d3\u6027\u53ca\u81f4\u547d\u7684\u8d85\u7ea7\u75c5\u6bd2\u5462\uff1f\u4e00\u573a<a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/1918_flu_pandemic\">1918\u5e74\u7684\u53d8\u5f02\u6d41\u611f<\/a>\u5e2d\u5377\u4e86\u5730\u7403\u4e0a3%\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\uff0c\u800c\u90a3\u751a\u81f3\u662f\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u7a7a\u6c14\u4f20\u64ad\uff08\u5728\u5168\u7403\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u4f20\u64ad\u75be\u75c5\uff09\u53d8\u5f97\u666e\u53ca\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u53ef\u662f\u5374\u6ca1\u6709\u4e00\u4e1d\u4e00\u6beb\u7684\u667a\u80fd\u8fdb\u5165\u5230\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684\u8bbe\u8ba1\u3002\u53ea\u9700\u8fd0\u7528\u4e00\u70b9\u5c0f\u806a\u660e\uff0c\u4f60\u5c31\u80fd\u4ece\u8377\u5170\u627e\u5230\u4e00\u652f\u961f\u4f0d\uff0c\u5236\u9020\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d8\u79cd\u79bd\u6d41\u611f\uff0c\u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/rt.com\/news\/bird-flu-killer-strain-119\/?utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_source=pulsenews\">\u4fbf\u80fd\u6d88\u706d\u6389\u4e00\u534a\u7684\u4eba\u7c7b<\/a>\u3002\u201d\u4e00\u4e2a\u8d85\u667a\u80fd\u751a\u81f3\u8fd8\u53ef\u4ee5\u5236\u9020\u51fa\u8fdc\u6bd4\u8fd9\u66f4\u7cdf\u7684\u540e\u679c\u3002\u6216\u8bb8\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u8fd8\u80fd\u901a\u8fc7\u9690\u85cf\u5728\u5730\u4e0b\u6216\u5c06\u5176\u81ea\u8eab\u5728\u592a\u7a7a\u5f15\u7206\uff0c\u8fd0\u7528<em>\u73b0\u6709\u7684<\/em>\u6280\u672f\uff1a<a href=\"http:\/\/lesswrong.com\/lw\/8f0\/existential_risk\/\">\u6570\u5343\u6838\u6b66\u5668<\/a>\uff0c\u5c31\u80fd\u6740\u6b7b\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5173\u952e\u4e0d\u5728\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd<em>\u7279\u5b9a<\/em>\u573a\u666f\u90fd\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u3002\u6211\u53ea\u662f\u60f3\u6307\u51fa\u5728\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e2d\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u8fd9\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0e\u600e\u6837\u624d\u80fd\u8ba9\u6545\u4e8b\u66f4\u52a0\u5438\u5f15\u4eba\u65e0\u5173\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u725b\u6d25\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u54f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u5c3c\u514b\u00b7\u535a\u65af\u7279\u7f57\u59c6\uff08Nick Bostrom\uff09<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nickbostrom.com\/existential\/risks.html\">\u5982\u6b64\u8868\u8ff0<\/a>\uff1a<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u4f60\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u6b21\u770b\u5230\u6709\u5173\u4eba\u7c7b\u7a81\u7136\u8fdb\u5165\u706d\u7edd\u7684\u7535\u5f71\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u65f6\u5019\u5462\uff08\u6beb\u65e0\u9884\u8b66\u5730\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u672a\u88ab\u5176\u4ed6\u6587\u660e\u5f62\u6001\u53d6\u4ee3\uff09\uff1f<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>\u6545\u4e8b\u4f1a\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u6709\u8da3\uff0c\u5047\u5982\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u65b9\u5728\u6218\u4e89\u4e2d\u5f53\u771f\u80fd\u83b7\u80dc\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5f17\u7f57\u591a\uff08Frodo\uff09\u505a\u4e86\u660e\u667a\u7684\u6289\u62e9\uff0c\u4ece\u5de8\u9e70\u7684\u80cc\u540e<a href=\"http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=1yqVD0swvWU\">\u628a\u6212\u6307\u6254\u5230\u706b\u5c71\u91cc<\/a>\uff0c<em>\u9b54\u6212<\/em>\u4e00\u4e66\u5c31\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5982\u6b64\u7545\u9500\u4e86\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4eba\u7c7b\u7a81\u7136\u5c31<em>\u5931\u8d25<\/em>\uff0c\u7ed3\u5c40\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5f53\u601d\u8003\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e00\u5b9a\u4e0d\u80fd<a href=\"http:\/\/lesswrong.com\/lw\/k9\/the_logical_fallacy_of_generalization_from\/\">\u4ece\u865a\u6784\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u4e2d\u6765\u5f52\u7eb3<\/a>\u3002\u4e0d\u5e78\u7684\u662f\uff0c<em>\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5927\u8111\u4f1a\u81ea\u52a8\u8fd9\u6837\u5904\u7406\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><\/em>\u4e00\u9879\u8457\u540d\u7684<a href=\"http:\/\/commonsenseatheism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/12\/Lichtenstein-et-al-Judged-frequency-of-lethal-events.pdf\">1978\u5e74\u7814\u7a76<\/a>\u8ba9\u53d7\u8bd5\u8005\u5224\u65ad\u6709\u54ea\u4e24\u79cd\u5371\u9669\u53d1\u751f\u5f97\u66f4\u9891\u7e41\u4e00\u4e9b\u3002\u53d7\u8bd5\u8005\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u610f\u5916\u4e8b\u6545\u4f1a\u50cf\u75be\u75c5\u4e00\u6837\u9020\u6210\u4f17\u591a\u4eba\u5458\u6b7b\u4ea1\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u51f6\u6740\u8981\u6bd4\u81ea\u6740\u6848\u4ef6\u66f4\u52a0\u9891\u7e41\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u7531\u75be\u75c5\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u662f\u4e8b\u6545\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u768416\u500d\uff0c\u81ea\u6740\u6848\u4ef6\u66f4\u662f\u666e\u901a\u51f6\u6740\u6848\u4ef6\u7684\u4e24\u500d\u3002\u8fd9\u7a76\u7adf\u662f\u600e\u4e48\u56de\u4e8b\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u6570\u5341\u4e2a\u9488\u5bf9<a href=\"http:\/\/wiki.lesswrong.com\/wiki\/Availability_heuristic\">\u53ef\u5f97\u6027\u542f\u53d1\u5f0f<\/a>\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u4e8b\u60c5<em>\u6709\u591a\u8f7b\u6613\u5728\u8111\u6d77\u4e2d\u6d6e\u73b0<\/em>\u6765\u5224\u65ad\u4e8b\u60c5\u7684\u9891\u7387\u6216\u673a\u7387\u7684\u3002\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u80fd\u5728\u7ef4\u57fa\u767e\u79d1\u4e2d\u67e5\u51fa<em>\u5b9e\u9645\u7684<\/em>\u9891\u7387\uff0c\u6216\u8fd0\u7528<a href=\"http:\/\/yudkowsky.net\/rational\/bayes\">\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406<\/a>\u6765\u786e\u5b9a\u5b9e\u9645\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u65f6\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u8fd0\u7528\u5230\u4ece\u6211\u4eec\u7956\u8f88\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u8fdb\u5316\u800c\u6765\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u542f\u53d1\u5f0f\uff0c\u90a3\u60c5\u51b5\u8fd8\u4e0d\u7b97\u592a\u7cdf\u7cd5\u3002\u5927\u8111\u7684\u542f\u53d1\u5f0f\u662f\u5feb\u901f\u3001\u5ec9\u4ef7\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u901a\u5e38\u90fd\u662f\u5bf9\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u662f\u5c31\u6b63\u5982\u6211\u4eec\u8bb8\u591a\u7684\u8fdb\u5316\u8ba4\u77e5\u542f\u53d1\u5f0f\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u53ef\u5f97\u6027\u542f\u53d1\u5f0f\u5e38\u5e38\u4f1a\u5f97\u51fa\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u610f\u5916\u4e8b\u6545\u8981\u6bd4\u75be\u75c5\u6765\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u903c\u771f\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u8ba9\u4eba\u4eec\u8054\u60f3\u5230\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u6211\u4eec\u9ad8\u4f30\u4e86\u5b83\u4eec\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u75be\u75c5\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u9891\u7387\u3002\u540c\u6837\u5730\u4e5f\u9519\u8bef\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e86\u51f6\u6740\u4e0e\u81ea\u6740\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u9891\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u53ef\u5f97\u6027\u542f\u53d1\u5f0f\u540c\u65f6\u8fd8<a href=\"http:\/\/www.psychologytoday.com\/articles\/200712\/10-ways-we-get-the-odds-wrong\">\u89e3\u91ca<\/a>\u4e86\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4eba\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5750\u98de\u673a\u8981\u6bd4\u9a7e\u8f66\u66f4\u5371\u9669\uff0c\u800c\u4e8b\u5b9e\u6070\u6070\u76f8\u53cd\uff1a\u7136\u800c\u4e00\u67b6\u98de\u673a\u5760\u6bc1\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u66f4\u751f\u52a8\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u4e00\u65e6\u98de\u673a\u5931\u4e8b\u5c31\u4f1a\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5730\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5728\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u5370\u8c61\u4e2d\u5b83\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u673a\u7387\u66f4\u9ad8\uff0c\u800c\u5927\u8111\u8bf1\u4f7f\u81ea\u8eab\u8054\u60f3\u5230\u610f\u5916\u7684<em>\u53ef\u53d1\u751f\u6027<\/em>\u4ee5\u6307\u793a\u5176<em>\u53d1\u751f\u673a\u7387<\/em>\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5f53\u4f60\u7684\u5927\u8111\u60f3\u5230\u8d85\u4eba\u7c7b\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5b83\u7a76\u7adf\u5728\u505a\u4ec0\u4e48\u5462\uff1f\u6700\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5b83\u4f1a\u68c0\u7d22\u6240\u6709\u4f60\u66fe\u9047\u5230\u8fc7\u7684\u8d85\u4eba\u7c7b\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u5b9e\u4f8b\u2014\u2014\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4eec\u90fd\u662f<em>\u865a\u6784\u7684<\/em>\u2014\u2014\u800c\u6839\u636e\u5b83\u4eec\u4e0e\u6700\u5bb9\u6613\u8054\u60f3\u5230\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u7684\u543b\u5408\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff08\u7531\u4e8e\u4f60\u7684\u601d\u7ef4\u53ea\u5728\u865a\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8bf4\u4e2d\u78b0\u5230\u8fc7\u5b83\u4eec\uff09\u6765\u5224\u65ad\u67d0\u4e9b\u60c5\u51b5\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\u53ea\u4f1a\u8ba9\u4e8b\u60c5\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u7cdf\u3002<a href=\"http:\/\/lesswrong.com\/lw\/k9\/the_logical_fallacy_of_generalization_from\/\">\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u6765\u8bf4<\/a>\uff1a\u201c\u5c31\u662f\u8054\u60f3\u5230\u7a81\u7136\u5192\u8fdb\u8111\u6d77\u7684\u5c0f\u8bf4\u60c5\u666f\uff0c\u5e76\u4ee3\u66ff\u4f60\u8fdb\u884c\u601d\u8003\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u6240\u4ee5\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u6709\u5173\u8d85\u4eba\u7c7b\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u5f62\u8c61\u7684\u76f4\u89c9\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u76f4\u89c9\u53ef\u80fd\u53ea\u662f\u6e90\u81ea\u4e8e<em>\u865a\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8bf4<\/em>\uff0c\u800c\u4f60\u5e76\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5bdf\u89c9\u5230\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6211\u8981\u901a\u8fc7\u8c08\u8bba<a href=\"http:\/\/facingthesingularity.com\/2011\/from-skepticism-to-technical-rationality\/\">\u7406\u6027<\/a>\u5f00\u59cb\u5207\u5165<em>\u9762\u5bf9\u5947\u70b9<\/em>\u3002\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u5f00\u59cb\u601d\u8003\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u90a3\u4e00\u523b\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u76f4\u63a5\u95ef\u5165\u4e00\u4e2a\u9519\u7efc\u590d\u6742\u4f46\u666e\u904d\u7684\u4eba\u4e3a\u6545\u969c\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u3002\u6536\u96c6\u865a\u6784\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u7528\u4e8e\u5f52\u7eb3\u5c31\u662f\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u79cd\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002\u8fd9\u91cc\u518d\u4e3e\u4e00\u4e9b<a href=\"http:\/\/singinst.org\/upload\/cognitive-biases.pdf\">\u5176\u5b83\u4f8b\u5b50<\/a>\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u57fa\u4e8e\u53ef\u5f97\u6027\u542f\u53d1\u5f0f\u7684\u7f18\u6545\uff0c\u4f60\u7684\u5927\u8111\u4f1a\u544a\u8bc9\u4f60\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u6d88\u706d\u4eba\u7c7b\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u4ee4\u4eba\u96be\u4ee5\u7f6e\u4fe1\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4f60\u4ee5\u524d\u4ece\u672a\u9047\u5230\u8fc7\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5f53\u4e8b\u60c5\u968f\u7740\u8ba9\u4eba\u7cbe\u75b2\u529b\u7aed\u800c\u53d8\u5f97\u7cdf\u7cd5\uff0c\u6bd4\u65b9\u8bf4\uff0c<a href=\"http:\/\/tvtropes.org\/pmwiki\/pmwiki.php\/Main\/AlienInvasion\">\u5916\u661f\u4eba\u5165\u4fb5<\/a>\u8fd9\u90e8\u7535\u5f71\uff0c\u52c7\u6562\u7684\u4eba\u7c7b\u82f1\u96c4\u6700\u7ec8\u603b\u662f\u4f1a\u5728\u5728\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u5206\u949f\u627e\u5230\u83b7\u53d6\u80dc\u5229\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u9ad8\u4f30\u4e86\u8fde\u73af\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u673a\u7387\uff0c\u4f46\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\u95f4\u9694\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u673a\u7387\uff08<a href=\"http:\/\/fiesta.bren.ucsb.edu\/~costello\/courses\/ESM204\/ESM204_10\/Readings\/Judgment%20under%20uncertainty.pdf\">\u8fd9\u91cc\u6709\u4e00\u4efd\u7814\u7a76<\/a>\uff09\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd<em>\u9ad8\u4f30<\/em>\u4e86\u8d85\u4eba\u7c7b\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7ed3\u679c\u4f1a\u53d8\u597d\u7684\u8fd9\u4e00\u673a\u7387\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3aX\uff0cY\u548cZ\u5168\u90e8\u90fd\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u800c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd<em>\u4f4e\u4f30<\/em>\u4e86\u8d85\u4eba\u7c7b\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u6700\u540e\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u7cdf\u7684\u673a\u7387\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6709\u8bb8\u591a\u65b9\u6cd5\u4f1a\u8ba9\u8d85\u4eba\u7c7b\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u6700\u540e\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u7cdf\uff0c\u8fd9\u5e76\u4e0d\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u8fd8\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u5176\u5b83\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u57fa\u4e8e\u4f60\u5927\u8111\u7684<a href=\"http:\/\/lesswrong.com\/lw\/j7\/anchoring_and_adjustment\/\">\u951a\u5b9a\u4e0e\u8c03\u6574<\/a>\u542f\u53d1\u5f0f\u7684\u7f18\u6545\uff0c\u4f60\u5bf9\u4e00\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u5c06\u4f1a<em>\u951a\u5b9a<\/em>\u660e\u663e\u65e0\u5173\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\uff08\u4e8e\u662f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u51fa\u73b0\u5728\u5e78\u8fd0\u9640\u87ba\u6eda\u52a8\u4e0b\u7684\u6570\u5b57\u5c06\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u4f60\u5bf9\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u5728\u975e\u6d32\u7684\u731c\u6d4b\uff09\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6211\u521a\u521a<em>\u8c08\u5230<\/em>\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5224\u65ad\u8d85\u4eba\u7c7b\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u6700\u7ec8\u4f1a\u5982\u4f55\uff0c<em>\u7ec8\u7ed3\u8005\uff08The Terminator\uff09<\/em>\u53ea\u662f\u65e0\u5173\u7d27\u8981\u7684\u865a\u6784\u8bc1\u636e\uff0c\u4f46\u4f60\u7684\u5927\u8111\u5374\u8bd5\u56fe\u951a\u5b9a<em>\u7ec8\u7ed3\u8005\uff08The Terminator\uff09<\/em>\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u8c03\u6574\u8fdc\u79bb\u5b83\uff0c\u4f46\u5374\u8fd8\u8fdc\u5f97\u4e0d\u591f\u79bb\u5f00\u5b83\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u57fa\u4e8e<a href=\"http:\/\/lesswrong.com\/lw\/lg\/the_affect_heuristic\/\">\u60c5\u611f\u542f\u53d1\u5f0f<\/a>\u7684\u7f18\u6545\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u6839\u636e\u81ea\u5df1\u5bf9\u4e8b\u7269\u7684\u611f\u89c9\u6765\u5bf9\u5176\u505a\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u6f02\u4eae\u7684\u4eba\u611f\u89c9\u826f\u597d\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u4f1a\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6f02\u4eae\u7684\u4eba\u540c\u6837\u4e5f\u4f1a\u662f\u806a\u660e\u548c\u52e4\u594b\u7684\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u667a\u80fd\u611f\u89c9\u826f\u597d\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u5c31\u4f1a\u671f\u671b\u4e00\u4e2a\u667a\u80fd\u673a\u5668\u662f\u4ec1\u6148\u7684\u3002\uff08\u4f46\u662f\uff0c<a href=\"http:\/\/singinst.org\/upload\/ECAPFoxShulman.pdf\">\u7ed3\u679c\u5e76\u975e\u5982\u6b64<\/a>\u3002\uff09\n<li>\u57fa\u4e8e<a href=\"http:\/\/lesswrong.com\/lw\/hw\/scope_insensitivity\/\">\u8303\u56f4\u4f4e\u654f\u5ea6<\/a>\u7684\u7f18\u6545\uff0c\u76f8\u6bd4\u6211\u4eec\u52aa\u529b\u963b\u6b621000\u4e07\u4eba\u6b7b\u4ea1\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u4f1a\u611f\u89c9\u5230\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u53bb\u963b\u6b62100\u4ebf\u4eba\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u5f88\u663e\u7136\u5730\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5e76\u4e0d\u4e3a\u601d\u8003\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u8fd9\u4e00\u95ee\u9898\u800c\u751f\u4e8e\u4e16\u4e0a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e3a\u4e86\u80fd\u660e\u667a\u5730\u601d\u8003\u5173\u4e8e\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u8981\u63d0\u9632\u2014\u2014\u5e76\u4e14\u79ef\u6781\u5730\u62b5\u5236\u2014\u2014\u8bb8\u591a\u79cd\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u601d\u7ef4\u8bef\u533a\u3002\u5728\u601d\u8003\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u95ee\u9898\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u8fd0\u7528\u5230<a href=\"http:\/\/facingthesingularity.com\/2011\/the-laws-of-thought\/\">\u601d\u7ef4\u7684\u5b9a\u5f8b<\/a>\u800c\u4e0d\u662f<a href=\"http:\/\/facingthesingularity.com\/2011\/the-crazy-robots-rebellion\/\">\u666e\u901a\u7684\u4eba\u7c7b\u75af\u72c2\u601d\u7ef4<\/a>\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6216\u8005\uff0c\u6362\u4e00\u79cd\u65b9\u5f0f\u601d\u8003\uff1a\u8d85\u4eba\u7c7b\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u5c06\u4f1a\u5bf9\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u4ea7\u751f\u91cd\u5927\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u4eec\u8feb\u5207\u5730\u5e0c\u671b\u201c\u6218\u80dc\u201d\u8d85\u4eba\u7c7b\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u88ab\u5176\u201c\u6253\u8d25\u201d\u3002<a href=\"http:\/\/facingthesingularity.com\/2011\/from-skepticism-to-technical-rationality\/\">\u6280\u672f\u5408\u7406\u6027<\/a>\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/facingthesingularity.com\/2011\/why-spock-is-not-rational\/\">\u4f7f\u7528\u5f97\u5f53<\/a>\u7684\u8bdd\u4f1a\u662f<a href=\"http:\/\/lesswrong.com\/lw\/7i\/rationality_is_systematized_winning\/\">\u4e00\u4e2a\u6700\u4f73\u7684\u83b7\u80dc\u7cfb\u7edf<\/a>\u2014\u2014\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f<a href=\"http:\/\/selfawaresystems.files.wordpress.com\/2012\/03\/rational_ai_greater_good.pdf\">\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b8c\u7f8e\u7684\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u4f1a\u4e3a\u4e86\u5c3d\u6700\u5927\u53ef\u80fd\u83b7\u80dc\u800c\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf<\/a>\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u60f3\u8981\u6218\u80dc\u8d85\u4eba\u7c7b\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u5e94\u8be5\u7528\u7406\u6027\u6765\u89e3\u51b3\u3002<br \/>\n\u800c\u90a3\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u5728\u4e0b\u4e00\u7ae0\u91cc\u5f00\u59cb\u505a\u7684\u3002<br \/>\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ufeff\u7ec8\u7ed3\u8005\uff08The Terminator\uff09\u7535\u5f71\u4e2d\uff0c\u5929\u7f51\uff08Skynet\uff09\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u53d8\u5f97&hellip;  <a href=\"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/zh\/2011\/not-built-to-think-about-ai\/\">continue reading<\/a> &raquo;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-117","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-chapter"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/117","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=117"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/117\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=117"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=117"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/intelligenceexplosion.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=117"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}